Watching Drew Brees’ “last game” in the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it was really hard to imagine that it really could be the final game of his career. Brees is one of the great quarterbacks of this era. For him to get balled up the way that he did just felt like it was too good to be true that he would end his NFL career on the note that it did. Brees’s playoff performance wasn’t the greatest either.
Brees threw for just 134 yards and completed 55.8% completion percentage going 19 for 34 that night. He passed for one touchdown and averaged just 3.9 yards per attempt, something unheard of for Drew Brees for the entire season. Brees had a passer rating of 38.1%, a career-low for the Saints QB in his playoff career.
Not long after, it was revealed that Brees had been dealing with injuries the whole seasonl fighting off injures revealed by his wife after the season was over. Among the injuries mentioned were a torn rotator cuff, torn fascia in his foot, a collapsed lung and 11 broken ribs to be the icing on that injury cake. With all of these things compounded together, would you want to end your career on that kind of note?
The Saints, however, have to figure out what will be the next move for the organization; and the 2021 season. Fantasy football owners will have to decide whether or not to draft players from the Saints. Will the Saints decide to move on from Drew Brees or will Brees decide to hang up his cleats? Let’s stay in-house for this one and see if the Saints already have their guy onboard.
Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston was picked up by the Saints after hitting free agency at the end of the 2019 season. His former team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, didn’t sign his 5th-year option and opted to let the former franchise QB walk. Winston’s last season was a tale of two stories. He led the league in passing yards, throwing for over 5k in 2019 (5,109), threw 33 touchdowns (that placed him 2nd among QBs in that category), and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt (that placed him 6th among QBs).
On the flipside, Winston also led the league in interceptions with 33 with a 20.6% bad throw percentage. He also had an On Target % of just 69.9. Both stats place Winston at the bottom of the league among Qbs. Winston has shown promise heading out of Tampa Bay at the very least. He’s shown a willingness to throw the deep ball under Bruce Arians and might not be called upon to do so in New Orleans.
In that same season (2019), Drew Brees played 12 games but only had 33 pass attempts of 20+ yards and averaged just 141.6 AY/G (air yards per game). Brees totaled 1,558 air yards in those 12 games. That means that Brees was taking about 2.75 deep passes a game over that span. In contrast, Winston took 113 attempts in the same category which comes down to just over 7 deep passes per game and 3,248 total air yards in 16 games per FantasyData.com.
Under Sean Payton, Winston would be the ideal choice to take over the reins in NO if Brees does end up retiring in my opinion. Payton seems to call a shorter ranged passing attack and relies on going through Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to move the ball upfield.
While they will occasionally take a shot, the Saints style may allow Winston to take advantage of his strong arm without allowing him to make big mistakes on deep passes, narrowing his focus on short to intermediate passes. Plus, he’s a free agent this year and he’s going to be cheap. Why not roll the dice on Winston next year? To me, Winston is the best option if I had to choose between him and the next guy.
Taysom Hill
I’m not going to lie. The versatility that Taysom Hill brings to the Saints offense is something to behold. He plays all over the place and while those are good qualities, he needs to be a QB first. Sean Payton decided that when Drew Brees went down with another injury and would miss multiple weeks behind it, that it was a brilliant idea to give Taysom Hill the start.
To be honest, he wasn’t really wrong. Hill would go 3-1 over the 4 weeks that Brees would miss. Hill ended up passing for 834 yards with a 4/2 TD:INT ratio over that span too. He also had a 71.9% completion percentage and a 96.9 passer rating on 114 passing attempts. Did I mention that Taysom Hill was the QB15 over the 4 weeks Brees was out too? So you might be thinking, “Will, these all sound like good numbers. Why are you not for him over Winston?”
The thing is this. While these numbers are pretty solid as a whole, a deeper look pulls up some red flags. On average, Hill was throwing about 208.5 yards a game. Even if you account for his rushing ability, 209 yards and a 5.4 yards per carry average, that’s just 260 total yards a game. I’m not sure Taysom Hill would be reliable for an entire season if he was called up.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Hill starting over Winston in the regular season was just a showcase to build up trade value for 2021. Remember, the Saints tied a 1st-round tender to him last season. If someone wanted to trade for HIll, they would have to give up a 1st to get him. That could be a point of interest in regards to what the Saints would be looking for him should a trade deal come across their desk. The Saints hold the 28th pick in the first-round for the 2021 NFL Draft.
Drew Brees Returns?
This is still a lingering point. As mentioned in the outset of the article, Brees didn’t exactly go out on a good note after getting “Gears of War” styled curb stomped in the playoffs by Tom Brady and the Bucs. I’d also imagine that with the kind of competitor Brees is, he wouldn’t want to end it that way. This could be why Brees hasn’t issued a statement on whether or not he’s looking to retire yet.
Despite his silence on the matter, the Saints did restructure his contract for the 2021 season. By reducing his contract by $24 million dollars, his base salary would be just over $1 million dollars and then the Saints would be able to place him on the reserve-retired list.
Per league source the #Saints have renegotiated Drew Brees' contract to open up nearly $24M in cap space for 2021.
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) February 6, 2021
While folks will call Drew Brees “cooked” after his lackluster performance down the stretch of the regular season, those injuries could have impacted him more than some realize. Back in 2018, Brees played 15 games and was 11th in air yards with 2,235 and 13th in air yards per game at 149. That’s much better than his totals from the 2020 season in which he landed 24th and 25th in both categories.
To put it simply, a healthy Drew Brees is an elite Drew Brees. In concert with his vibe with the offensive weapons in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, the Saints are a more dangerous team with Brees than with any other QB on this list. It’s just a matter of whether or not Brees wants to gut out one more year to go out on a more positive note.
The Wrap Up
If I’m sitting in the front office and I had to make the decision, I would bring Brees back and let him go out with a bang. Call me a soft heart. I’ve had the pleasure to watch Drew Brees growing up and I’ve watched him torch my Cowboys in some great games. As much as he means to the city of New Orleans I would let him go out on a true farewell tour with the team. I would continue to add depth to the oline to make sure he stays upright and maybe add another weapon in the draft for the future. I would also bring back Jameis Winston, letting him know that he’s going to have an opportunity to be the future of the team.
Winston to me, has more upside than Taysom Hill and is younger to boot. The pairing of Winston with Sean Payton could definitely pay off but the work has to be put in by Winston to make sure that it does.
Fantasy football owners will want to stay on top of this development. Both Thomas and Kamara will still draw 1st-round draft prices in fantasy at least. The quarterback position could greatly impact the value of both these highly regarded options.
Drew Brees coming out and stating whether or not he will call it a career will be the beginning of which direction fantasy football owners will go.
