Joe Mixon is the Dogecoin of fantasy football running backs. Those who don’t have any shares are completely uninterested, but those invested can’t shut up about it. And, in many cases, they’ve already dug their heels in, and have been invested for so long that they would never sell, even if they know they should.
Physically, Mixon is a very good football player. His 6’1” 228lb frame looked NFL-ready even when he was still in college. After falling in the draft due to concerns after an off-the-field issue (I’m not going to go into further detail on it. What he did to the girl was uncalled for and a horrible thing to do. This article is strictly about Mixon as a fantasy asset), Mixon has flashed the potential of a workhorse three-down back.
This is why Mixon owners are so stubbornly high on him. He has handled 812 carries over his four-year career so far, highlighted by 515 carries from 2018-2019. Mixon has also been somewhat steadily involved in the Cincinnati passing game (he also saw another 100 targets over that same span, and reeled in a rock solid 78 catches), but overall his production (before playing in just six games this year, Mixon finished as the RB13 in his “breakout” 2019) and has simply never justified his ADP being comparable to a high-end RB1.
Since he came into the league, Joe Mixon has struggled to stay on the field. He has battled various lower body injuries so far in his career, and spent the majority of this season on injured reserve after a foot injury ended his season in Week 6. To make things worse, veteran backup Gio Bernard (and his glorious mustache) came in and arguably outplayed Mixon.
Bernard was a valuable handcuff in 2020, scoring 20+ fantasy points in four games, something Mixon did just twice when last healthy in 2019. Bernard far-and-away outproduced Mixon as a receiver (his 59 targets were 12th-most among all running backs), and with the Bengals offense looking to go even more pass-heavy (before Joe Burrow was lost for the season in Week 11) Cincinnati was throwing the ball more than almost anyone in the league at nearly 40 attempts per game.
Mixon is going to have to prove that he can be utilized in the passing game if he wants to demand more touches. It is also extremely possible that the Bengals draft a pass-catching running back this year, as they prepare to likely move on from the aging Bernard, who will turn 30 this season and is entering the last year of his contract.
This isn’t to say Mixon is, in fact, bad at football. But rather that he has not yet shown that he can demand (and withstand) the workload and usage of an elite RB1. Mixon believers have been circling the wagons every single offseason saying “this is the year” Mixon finally breaks out, but at some point we are going to have to see it.
It is possible that Mixon comes out this year fully healthy and dominates games like has has teased at for so long, but there are too many factors at play to write off the trajectory of the past four seasons as an aberration and we must accept it as a trend.
Until this trend changes for good, it is (cue Stephen A. Smith voice) absolutely blasphemous to view Joe Mixon as an elite dynasty RB1, and anyone who tries to convince you otherwise is trying to sell you penny stocks.
