Tyler Johnson: Sophomore Breakout?

Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ WR Tyler Johnson have a sophomore breakout? Find out why I think you should buy him now!   

 

Bucs Are Super Bowl Champions. Now what? 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just won the Superbowl and have arguably the greatest QB of all time. So too much change shouldn’t be needed right?

Like all teams that win the Superbowl, it’s hard to repeat as champions. Most times there are hard decisions that have to be made, dealing with contracts and staying under the salary cap.  The Buccaneers are no different. Let’s take a look at a possible shift for the wide receiver group for Tom Brady. 

Both Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin are upcoming free agents and they both might not be retained. There are major defensive pieces that may be prioritized, such as Shaquil Barrett and Lavonte David. Brown has repaired his image and shown that he can still be productive, while Godwin is considered a top-12 receiver.

If the Bucs even can retain one of the WR free agents, the 3rd receiver spot is up for grabs.  This is likely to be between Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller.  Tyler Johnson has a higher upside, so lets take a look at his profile. 

 

College 

Tyler Johnson was a very productive receiver in his last two years with the Minnesota Golden Gophers. He amassed over 160 receptions, 2400 yards and 25 tds per SRCFB.  Per PFF_College, Johnson led the NCAA in redzone receptions in 2019 with 19, and was 3rd since 2017 in contested catches with 37.

Johnson’s career stats did not just come against subpar teams, he produced against top competition as seen below. The lack of speed and seperation dropped his draft grade but his excellent route running and ability to make contested catches made him an excellent target for teams in the middle rounds. 

 

Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson career vs ranked teams:
– Michigan State: 8 rec, 106 yards, 3 TDs
– NW: 8 rec, 88 yards, TD
– OSU: 8 rec, 119 yards
– Auburn: 12 rec, 204 yards, 2 TDs
– Wisconsin: 8 rec, 89 yards, TD
– Iowa: 9 rec, 120 yards, TD
– PSU: 7 rec, 104 yards, TD#Eagles

— Thomas R. Petersen 🦅 (@thomasrp93) April 14, 2020

⏳ Slow Release

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💥 Late Suddenness

Beautiful Goal Line Fade from Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson! pic.twitter.com/nIufWdfjTa

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) June 28, 2020

 

2020 Season 

Tyler Johnson was drafted in the 5th round of the 2020 NFL Draft and was an afterthought early in rookie drafts as his ADP in wasn’t even in the top-15 rookie for WRs, per Rookie ADP 2020.  More experienced managers saw the ability; and with Brady joining the Bucs, there was a thought that Johnson would thrive as a 3rd receiver.

With the lack of training camps due to the pandemic and an early spring injury, Johnson got off to a very slow start. He received a chance in a week 5 loss to the Chicago Bears when Chris Godwin didn’t play and Mike Evans was dealing with an injury. He showed flashes with 4 catches for 61 yards. Even after that mini-breakout he only caught 8 passes the rest of the season, continuing to be buried on the depth chart. 

 

Dynasty Outlook 

So why is Tyler Johnson a buy right now? As discussed before it looks as one receiver will be leaving in free agency and with Evans aging and possibly dealing with more injuries, opportunity could come quickly. On top of this, Brady always has been a QB that throws to players he trusts. Burn him with bad routes or drops, and he may not target you again.

Even with limited targets in the playoffs, Johnson came up with key plays. In the NFC Championship with the game on the line, Brady targeted him which led to a big pass interference call to salt the game away.

According to FF Pros dynasty trade chart, Johnson is around a middle 3rd-round rookie value.  With how many people get rookie crazy in dynasty, you might even be able to get Johnson for a late 3rd. This could be great value. If you take the combination of the WR3 on the Bucs (Miller/Brown), it would be around 80 catches, 1000 yards and 7 tds. The Bucs offense really started to hit its stride with Tom Brady near the end of the season and with a full off-season and training camp, Johnson should prove to be a big part of that going forward.