An NFL survivor pool is a wonderful thing. It gives casual fans something to cheer for when they don’t have the time for fantasy sports. As simple as it sounds to pick one winner each week, there is a lot more that you must consider. Each week, I will discuss point spreads, ownership rate, injuries and weather. This will help you decide which team you should choose for your pool. I’ll offer a multi-faceted approach that will give you several options for each week. These options are based on your level of risk tolerance. This is My NFL Survivor Pool Guide – Week 16 Edition.
NFL Survivor Pool Guide Week 16 – The Heavy Favorites
Buffalo Bills, 19.45% ownership (-12.0) at Los Angeles Chargers, 0.00% ownership. The Bills have been on fire as of late and once again look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. This week they get a matchup with a Los Angeles Chargers squad that has been eliminated from playoff contention and is decimated by injuries. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Justin Herbert are all likely to be out for this game. The Bills will run away in this one and assert themselves again as an AFC powerhouse.
Risk= 0
Philadelphia Eagles, 31.39% ownership (-12.0) vs. New York Giants, 0.06% ownership. The Eagles have gone through some struggles as of late but the New York Giants are exactly what they need to get back on track. I expect the past few weeks to be nothing more than a bump in the road on their way to a lengthy playoff run. This matchup would be 0 risk for the Eagles if it weren’t a divisional matchup. In a divisional matchup, you can never assume anyone is safe, but this is very safe.
Risk = 1
Kansas City Chiefs, 6.17% (-10.0) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 0.00%. The Chiefs are one of the many powerhouses that have looked weak as of late. Much like the Eagles, the Chiefs get a cupcake divisional matchup this week to get them back on track. The Raiders may have been able to destroy the Chargers in Week 15, but they have no chance of repeating that performance against an elite Chiefs defence.
Risk = 1
Denver Broncos, 27.07% (-6.5) vs. New England Patriots, 0.00%. The Broncos are coming off a win streak that came to an end after a thorough beat-down at the hands of the Detroit Lions. The Broncos figure to be a team in the playoff hunt right down to the wire and in this easy matchup against the floundering Patriots, they should have no trouble getting back in the win column. Sure, Russell Wilson could pull a full Russell Wilson, but aside from his melting down this game should be one-sided.
Risk = 2
NFL Survivor Pool Guide Week 16 – The Sneaky Value Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.13% ownership (-1.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.16% ownership: The Jaguars have been an underrated contender for much of the season and have quietly been in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC. This week they get a tough matchup against a Buccaneers squad that is far less talented but is fighting for their playoff lives. The Jaguars are easily the better team, this one will come down to which team is hungrier.
Risk = 5
Cleveland Browns, 0.16% ownership (-2.5) at Houston Texans, 0.25% ownership: The Browns and Texans would have been a prime matchup of contenders a month ago, but with the majority of the Texan’s offence set to miss this game it’s tough to make a case for them betting an excellent Browns team. It’s a shame that injury is going to bring the Texan’s season to an end short of a playoff berth, but that is exactly what’s going to happen.
Risk = 5
Green Bay Packers, 16.95% ownership (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers, 0.09% ownership: The Packers are not to be confused with the elite teams in the NFL, but the Panthers are easily the worst team in the league and are the perfect team to target regardless of opponent. The Packers still have enough to play for to make them a guaranteed winner in this one.
Risk = 3
Seattle Seahawks, 0.38% ownership (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans, 0.03% ownership: The Seahawks and Titans appear to be two ships going in opposite directions. The Seahawks have found their way to battle through a Geno Smith injury to keep themselves in the playoff hunt, while the Titans appear to be starting Ryan Tannehill this week as they fade from the playoff picture. The Seahawks should win this one easily.
Risk = 4
NFL Survivor Pool Guide Week 16 – The Upset Special
Indianapolis Colts, 0.63% ownership (+1.0) at Atlanta Falcons, 0.09% ownership: The Colts are still in the AFC playoff hunt, but that’s not why I’m taking them in this matchup of middling teams. Any time I can get points while betting against an NFC South team, count me in. Look for the Colts to prove that the AFC is the far superior South division.
Risk = 7
Minnesota Vikings, 0.03% ownership (+3.0) vs. Detroit Lions, 0.34% ownership: The Vikings are probably the less talented team in this matchup, especially when you factor in Nick Mullens at quarterback. As the Lions have found their way into the ranks of the contenders, it remains to be seen if they can win the big games. A win this week would be the biggest single-game win for a Detroit team in probably 25 years.
Risk = 8
Dallas Cowboys, 0.06% ownership (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins, 0.03% ownership: The Cowboys are as inconsistent as they come among the high-end teams. They have no trouble dispatching weaker opponents but struggle against the good teams. One week they blow out a tough opponent and the next week they get destroyed. The same can be said of the Dolphins who could be equally as fraudulent as the Cowboys. I’d choose to roll with Dallas in this one.
Risk = 10
Baltimore Ravens, 0.09% ownership (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers, 0.31% ownership: The Ravens are a risky play this week. To be honest, this is my current pick for the Super Bowl matchup. I believe these to be the two best teams in their conferences, but I believe the Ravens to be the better overall team. This one could go either way, but I’d like to roll with my gut on this one and go Ravens.
Risk = 10
NFL Survivor Pool Guide Week 16 – The Must Avoids
Chicago Bears, 2.32% ownership (-4.0) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 0.03% ownership: The Bears and Cardinals. That’s all I need to say here. Both these teams are terrible and I want nothing to do with either. This will likely be one of those games where both teams look like they are trying to lose the game in the 4th quarter. Both teams are capable of losing here, but which team is capable of winning?
Risk = 9
Cincinnati Bengals, 1.75% ownership (-2.0) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.00% ownership: The Bengals may be sporting a backup quarterback, but who isn’t this season? The Steelers are going to be starting Mason Rudolph who is easily inferior to Jake Browning. The Bengals may be beaten up and without Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow, but they are still the more talented roster as Pittsburgh watches star receiver George Pickens implode on the sidelines.
Risk = 8
Los Angeles Rams, 2.69% ownership (-4.0) vs. New Orleans Saints, 0.03% ownership: The Rams are a solid team and could easily find their way into the playoffs, but I’m taking them because, of NFC South. It has been rare this season that I have found a game that has me leaning in favour of an NFC South squad and this game is no exception. The Rams are healthier and more talented and are far better than the trash the Saints have been beating up on to stay in the playoff hunt.
Risk = 7
New York Jets, 0.28% ownership (-3.0) vs. Washington Commanders, 0.13% ownership: The Jets are a great defence and a bad offence, and the Commanders are a good offence and a terrible defence. In this battle of eliminated squads, I’m simply going to go with the elite defence and believe they will find a way to win.
Risk = 7
NFL Survivor Pool Guide Week 16 – Aaron’s Picks
The Safe Play: Buffalo Bills (-12.0)
The Sneaky Play: Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
The Longshot: Baltimore Ravens (+5.5)
Check out how last week’s picks fared at www.theleaguewinners.com
