It’s been a minute since I dropped my first two fantasy football Post-Draft Hangover articles. In case you need a refresher or want to check them out for the first time, here is Part I and Part II.
But the point of the series was and still is that we are mired in the offseason dead zone. Thankfully, some of us fantasy football fiends have had the Scott Fish Bowl, the Warrior Bowl, and other fantasy tournaments to keep us occupied in these dark days, but – and I’ll say it yet again – the NFL news cycle is painfully stagnant at the moment.
We don’t know what’s going on with Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson just yet, we’re uncertain what will transpire in upcoming camp battles and, still, we’re here trying to make some fantasy football decisions.
Part III, then, is for the diehards… because how else can you get through the actual Part III of The Hangover if you don’t absolutely love the series (or have to finish an ill-planned article series). But I hope I’ve got something even more provocative then the previous editions in store for you here.
So let’s get into some of my hotter takes for the 2021 season, as I pray these predictions don’t end up taking a nosedive off of a Caesar’s Palace penthouse balcony. And, if they do, hopefully I’m packing a parachute and there’s a limo speeding down Sunset Boulevard ready to break my fall.
One to Make You Feel a Little Awkward
We’re gonna start things off a little slow with Cincinnati rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals are set to unwrap the LSU standout in 2021 and, with a little luck, stuff the passing game down the throats of their competition.
I don’t consider this one too controversial, but it is a little bold. Honestly, if you’re not willing to take charge and make a move, you’re likely to leave the pawn shop without a phone number… or a used lollipop.
Take #1: Ja’Marr Chase = top 15 PPR WR
No one is arguing whether or not Chase has the potential to become an elite wide receiver in the NFL. However, few seem to be as bullish as I am on his chances to break out in year one.
Currently ranked as the WR37 on Fantasy Pros and coming in with a current Redraft PPR ADP of WR21 courtesy of Sleeper’s July 13th ADP update, I still see Chase as a value.
While I would agree that last year’s rookie breakouts like Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins may have skewed groupthink to overvalue rookies, Chase was the consensus WR1 in his class, a top five overall selection in the draft, and he landed with his college QB in a pass-friendly, up tempo offense. And, of course, this is the very same offense that propelled the aforementioned Higgins to a WR28 finish in his first season.
While Higgins was great in 2019 during his senior season at Clemson, Chase was exceptional as a junior at LSU. Chase posted 1,780 yards and 20 TDs with Joe Burrow, numbers that led the Division I in each category. In the process, he beat out teammate Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb – players who both exceeded expectations last season as rookies.
With no need to develop rapport and work on timing with a new quarterback, extreme athleticism on his side, and the fact that the Bengals are expected to throw a ton to again make up for an uninspiring defense, Chase is bound to finish as a PPR WR2 this season for fantasy football. And, with a little luck, he’ll sneak into the top-15.
Prediction: 72 receptions, 1150 yards, 9 TDs
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One to Start a Riot
If you can avoid it, you don’t want to get trapped at a position with value still left on the board. This is largely why I’m comfortable punting RB in my drafts this season: because the value everywhere else is too good to pass up; even if I have to crawl through a river of crap at running back later on.
Fortunately, there are a few diamonds left when things get rough at RB in the double-digit rounds. And, if you plan it right, the guys you grab will help you cover your holes and escape the draft with a couple of bargains.
Take #2: AJD = RB2
I am incapable of listening to reason when it comes to AJ Dillon this offseason. I don’t care where Aaron Rodgers has been or where he will be. I don’t care about Aaron Jones’ massive contract and relatively safe RB1 outlook. All I care about is Dillon’s locked in workload increase, Matt Lafleur’s desire to run the snot out of the football, and a lack of competition for backfield touches outside of Jones.
First, let’s review why this is a hot take that few, if any, are on in 2021.
- The Packers line is suspect all of a sudden – this one is not great considering the Packers have ranked in the top-5 at offensive line four years in a row, per PFF. The loss of center Corey Linsley is a massive blow, as is the departure of right tackle Rick Wagner.
- Green Bay has one of the worst SOS for RBs – part of the concern for the running game could come from the Packers’ schedule; which faces down AFC North defenses, the Bills, Football Team, Rams and 49ers out of division, and the Bears and Vikings twice. It’s a bit of a gauntlet to be sure.
- Aaron Rodgers’ absence will mean a less effective offense – it is certainly true that Jordan Love is a significant downgrade from Rodgers and his MVP effort in 2020. Plus, with the array of elite defenses on his plate, if Love does start, this offense could struggle mightily.
If you’ve read any of my work this offseason, you’re probably aware of my AJ Dillon love. And, to put it plainly, I accept that this is a bold take. But AJD finishing within the top-24 for fantasy football is well within the realm of possibility for me; which is true even with a healthy Aaron Jones and the aforementioned Jordan Love at QB.
I’ve previously discussed Dillon’s workload expectations in my last Post-Draft Hangover article linked above. Yet, as the RB40 (in both Sleeper’s and Fantasy Pros’ PPR ADP), Dillon is an afterthought for fantasy football drafters.
Dillon is routinely going behind the likes of James Conner, Kenyan Drake, and Trey Sermon. I’d argue that Dillon will see more work than all three of these backs, and he could even surprise with more than a few receptions that catch the defense off-guard.
Without Rodgers, Dillon should see additional opportunity in a run-heavy attack and a fair (though reduced) amount of short yardage and goal line work. With Rodgers, Dillon’s change-of-pace role should yield plenty while Jones still puts up crazy numbers and stays fresh for a playoff push.
Prediction: 160 rushes, 870 yards, 8 TDs; 19 receptions, 175 yards, 1 TD
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One to Take Your Head Clean Off
You’re probably looking at those AJD numbers right about now and shaking your head; that is, if it’s still attached to your body. That last take was unique to be sure, but I’m about to take you careening down the highway of hot takes at breakneck speed.
If I were you, I’d duck…
Take #3: Kyle Pitts goes off in his rookie season
Plenty want to pump the breaks on Falcons’ rookie tight end Kyle Pitts’ maiden voyage. Clearly, I am not one of them. Instead, I say cut the lines ‘cause dude is not gonna be slowed at all this season.
An obvious and immediate offensive focal point, the fourth overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft is set to light the league on fire. If anyone can replicate the feeling of Justin Jefferson’s 2020 season, it’s Pitts.
One of the biggest arguments against a breakout is the fact that tight ends are notoriously slow in developing at the highest level. Almost no TEs go off as rookies. In fact, outside of Mike Ditka’s 56/1076/12 line in 1961, only Evan Engram (2017), Keith Jackson (1988) and Charle Young (1973) had at least 50 receptions, 700 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie tight end.
… and, for me, this is likely Pitts’ floor.
In 2020, Pitts went for 43/770/12 at Florida in just eight games. That’s a 17-game pace of roughly 91/1636/25. Surely, these numbers won’t translate against NFL competition. But given the fact that Julio Jones was shipped out of town in part to help make room for Pitts, he’s in for a massive workload. And, given the Falcons’ defensive struggles and running game concerns in recent years, Atlanta will need to succeed through the air again in 2021.
We all know that Matt Ryan is more than happy to lean on his tight ends. Pitts should be moved around the formation a ton if new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith can figure out how to best deploy his new weapon. He was responsible for using Jonnu Smith in a similar fashion, yet Delaine Walker and the dominance of Derrick Henry capped Jonnu’s value in Tennessee.
With only an underwhelming Hayden Hurst at TE and journeyman Mike Davis in the backfield, Pitts isn’t facing the competition for touches that Smith was. Only Calvin Ridley should out-target the youngster.
Matt Ryan is a better passer than Ryan Tannehill, and he should be able to benefit from the guy who helped maximize Tanny’s talents in Tennessee. Additionally, Pitts is likely to be the short-to-intermediate go-to option while Ridley operates intermediate-to-deep and on the outside and Davis and company work the flat. With Julio gone, Pitts is set to explode.
Prediction: 82 receptions, 1100 yards, 10 TDs
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The Post-Draft Hangover series is now a wrap. I hope you enjoyed the strange journey.
And remember that The League Winners’ wolf pack is putting out some of the best and most informative fantasy football content you can find anywhere at the moment. Stay tuned in and check out more of our content to help you through the offseason, up to draft day and beyond.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.