Predicting five NFL rookies who may underperform in 2024

These five NFL rookies are likely to fall short of expectations in 2024.

Everyone loves rookies. After all, they have done no wrong in the eyes of fans. Rookies are the shining north star for teams who fell short of expectations last year, or the final puzzle piece for teams that just missed. Unfortunately, some NFL rookies will fall short of our lofty expectations in 2024. Whether they cannot break through a depth chart, can’t adjust from college to the NFL, or the fact that some of these players are not as good as we thought they were, some rookies will in fact fail.

Finding rookies who are likely to disappoint is key to managing expectations (so you don’t break a TV or draft a player to your fantasy football team that leads to you sitting in a waffle house for 24 hours as last place punishment). Like our positive spin before it, there will be a formula for finding our five NFL rookies likely to disappoint in 2024.

The Formula

1. There are legitimate expectations of a player being a valuable contributor. This would not be a fun article if I discussed how the UDFA on the roster bubble would disappoint.
2. They have a roadblock that is being overlooked. Often we want to dismiss the Josh Reynolds’ of the world as a fantasy football manager, but those role players hurt our dreams.
3. They have a skill set that won’t translate as quickly to NFL play. See Jalin Hyatt last year, or Nico Collins for two years. Sometimes it takes time. This does not mean these players are not good, but it might be a slow jump off the starter’s block.
4. Finally, the talent might be getting a little bit overhyped. This has the least amount of bearing, but after viewing all these players extensively, some players are just okay, not elite. This might not apply but it was worth looking at in my evaluation.

With that, it’s time to make some people mad.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders; Underdog ADP QB11, 101 Overall

Make no mistake, Jayden Daniels is a talented player. He has great touch on the deep ball and is electric when he takes off. However, this season might not be an immediate success story.

Daniels is surrounded by good players, but nobody on this team is a game-changing talent. It is an abundantly average group that seems to perpetually play down. Daniels also has warts that are going to take time to work out, and some that he simply never will. These issues are going to make him one of our rookies likely to disappoint in 2024.

The Surrounding Circumstances

Daniels will be the starting quarterback, without doubt. Every move this team has made says, “this is our guy”. As an older prospect who has been in college for a while, this is probably the right move. The Washington Commanders need to see what they have in Daniels. The team, however, is a work in progress around him.

Terry McLaurin is good but not great wide receiver. He consistently is a 1000-yard receiver, but saw his PFF grade drop from almost an 80 to a 75 last year. It’s hard to say whether the issue for McLaurin was Sam Howell and company, or whether in his age-28 season, he had started to simply regress a little. After McLaurin though it becomes somewhat mysterious.

I am high on Luke McCaffery but he remains an unknown and unproven player. Jahan Dotson has floundered unfortunately, either due to injury or simply being not that good. His PFF grade was only 57.7 last year and the stats and eye test back that up. Dotson struggled with separation, and his catch percentage has never been above 60 in his two years despite a relatively low aDOT. On top of that, he does not break tackles. The ghost of Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler are unlikely to provide much help, either.

Unfortunately, the offensive line will not be much help for Daniels, either. They ranked 14th in pass-win percentage and 22nd in run-win percentage. Signing Tyler Biadasz to fill in at center won’t help the pass game that much either, as he allowed 25 pressures last year. The Commanders allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL last year with 65. The pressures allowed are going to be a problem because unfortunately, Daniels is not that good at avoiding sacks himself.

Scouting Report

I differ slightly from our team’s scouting report on Daniels. While he has a pretty deep ball and is absolutely electric once he takes off running, Daniels is also very inconsistent, something that does not necessarily show up on the stat sheet. His ball placement was iffy, especially short and intermediate when watching him this year. Usually, it was very good but he got away with a lot of bad throws because his talent was so good.

Daniels also has trouble feeling pressure and evading would-be tacklers. His pressure-to-sack ratio was amongst the worst in the class and among the worst all-time for first-round picks. Add in the fact that he takes just monster hits when rushing and I worry a lot about his health with his size.

Conclusion

Daniels is a player that I believe in long term. Short term, I worry that the NFL will move too quickly for him. He had a lot of time in college to make deep throws to talented players, especially at the college level. Daniels’ speed and elusiveness helped a lot as well. The issue of reading pressure on a team that gives up a lot it, will cause issues.

His size and inability to avoid big hits could also cause Kyler Murray-like issues where the season just wears him down. While long term he might be okay, this year, Daniels will be one of the rookies likely to disappoint in the NFL in 2024.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars; Underdog ADP WR42, 71 Overall

Brian Thomas Jr. had a monster year in his final season at LSU. He had 1,177 yards and a mind-boggling 17 touchdowns on just 68 receptions. At 6 feet 3 inches and 209 pounds with 4.33 speed, he’s also an athletic freak. What’s the catch? BTJ finds himself in a tough spot for production year one and also is a prospect that may be overrated.

Scouting Report

Let’s start with the player. BTJ is a third-year breakout after doing next to nothing his first two years at LSU. On paper, the stats look pretty good. On tape, we see a slightly different story.

BTJ plays inconsistently, struggling to gain separation through lateral moves relying heavily on speed. Despite his size, he also struggled in contested catch situations. He additionally does not have a great feel for zone coverage. What he does well is go deep and outrun his man. Having Malik Nabers opposite him was helpful, as well as a QB like Daniels who was very accurate when given time.

The numbers back up this analysis here. BTJ ranked 341st against man coverage with a 61.2 grade,  and ranked 116th against zone with a 72.7 grade, per PFF.

Thomas did force a fair number of missed tackles and is good after the catch, although that’s more due to speed than ability in space. This profile to me feels very MVS-like. A deep threat, inconsistent, with low usage. I think BTJ has a clear upside in the NFL and could become a star eventually. Yet, before he gets there he has a lot of work to do on his game.

Roadblocks and Situation

Not only do I not like the prospect, but his situation is murky in year one. Trevor Lawrence has struggled to stay healthy so far in his own young career, which has equated to struggling in general.

However, he hovers around eight intended air yards per attempt throughout his career, and is second to only Josh Allen in 20+ yard throws over the last two seasons. The main issue, though, is that Lawrence will not only be throwing deep to BTJ.

BTJ has to beat out at Evan Engram and Gabe Davis to find a path to relevance this season. Engram consistently gets looks from Lawrence and is unlikely to be phased out. However, Davis is also new to town, so maybe that’s who gets beat out?

The money Davis received ($24 million guaranteed) suggests there is likely a timeshare at the very least. Christian Kirk is the clear WR1 in this offense and has been good since joining the Jaguars. None of these players are world-beaters, but they will get in the way of BTJ producing right away.

Conclusion

BTJ is an athletic wideout who should slot into a starting role right away in Jacksonville. However, he is a player with a lot of warts and is very limited at the moment. Between those limitations and growing pains to come, and a four-way committee for targets for a quarterback who has struggled to put up high-end numbers, BTJ is one of the NFL rookies likely to disappoint in 2024.

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants; Underdog ADP WR19, 26 Overall

Sorry LSU fans, this was not intentional.

Malik Nabers is an otherworldly talent. Now that I have that out of the way, this year is probably going to be bad. Not atrocious, but not WR19, 26 overall, either. The NY Giants just are not good enough to create that type of player.

Scouting Report

I don’t have much to add to the scouting report you see here. After all, Nabers was my WR1 in this class. He excels at every level on the football field. Nabers wins deep, makes his man miss, wins contested catches, and shakes his guy on intermediate and short routes. He can do it all, and do it well. The player is not the problem here. If I were in a dynasty league I would fully invest in the talent while expecting a bumpy start.

Roadblocks and Situation

Since Daniel Jones took over as the starter, the Giants have not had a wide receiver with over 800 yards. Jones has also never passed for more than 3,205 yards in a season in his career. However, the reality is that Jones has never really had much to throw to either. Yet at some point, you have to question whether a quarterback is just bad.

Spoiler alert, Jones is bad. Backup QB Drew Lock has not been any better so far in his career, though, either. As such, there just is not enough goodness to go around unless Nabers soaks up more than one-third of the team’s receiving yards and almost half of the passing touchdowns. This seems unlikely.

I do not foresee Darius Slayton, Hyatt, Wan’Dale Robinson, or Daniel Bellinger preventing Nabers from taking the WR1 role in this offense. However, it is important to note that Slayton has been the de-facto WR1 for this team for years and consistently produces around 750 yards and 2-4 touchdowns. He has Jones’ trust and Nabers might get slightly chipped into because of that.

Conclusion

Nabers is a great buy long term, and I am thrilled my G-Men drafted him. However, we need to temper year-one expectations while the Giants work through fixing this long-broken offense. Nabers will likely be solid, but inconsistent and average rather than a WR2 in fantasy football year one. The lofty expectations and horrific offense he finds himself in will make Nabers one of the rookies likely to disappoint in 2024.

Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals; Underdog ADP RB30, 106 Overall

Trey Benson has the unique position of being one of two running backs taken on the second day of the 2024 NFL draft after none were selected in the first round. Benson is not bad, nor is he great. Yet more importantly, he is in a tough place to contribute in 2024.

Scouting Report

Benson is a fairly average running back. He tested off the charts at the NFL combine, but the tape shows a slow build-up to get to speed. Benson also has an inconsistent pad level which limits his ability to his size and power. I do think that he has natural hands and is good out of the backfield, but he won’t be the next Ekeler in the NFL. He has good patience and waits for his blocks, though is prone to bouncing the ball outside a bit too often. On the whole, nothing here will hold him back too much, nor will it vault him into the upper echelon of running backs.

Long term, Benson is a good bet to be a 2-3 year window running back. Short term, this will ensure that he does not force anyone’s hand in giving him a full-time role.

Roadblocks and Situation

There are a few roadblocks to success for Benson. For starters, he’s stuck behind James Conner. Conner is an older running back with a history of injuries, but is nevertheless in the way. He was elite last year with a rushing grade of 89.4, fourth-highest in the NFL. Conner also had a career-high five yards per carry and finally cracked 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. He is not going anywhere, and will start the year as a foundational piece in this offense.

While Benson should be the RB2 on Arizona, the team is also not all that good. Pro Football Network has them ranked 28th going into 2024. It is worth noting that this unit was just below average last year, especially in the run-blocking department. The whole was greater than the parts as well and PFN is onto something. This team is not likely to repeat as an average sum offensive line. This will also hurt Benson, especially so given how patient he is behind the line.

Conclusion

Benson is fairly average in every way except how he tests in shorts. The Cardinals are below average in almost every way except for their first-round WR, and their starting running back. This will hold back Benson in a meaningful way in year one. It will prevent him from meeting his ADP, making him one of the rookies likely to disappoint in the NFL in 2024.

Chop Robinson, DE, Miami Dolphins

Chop Robinson was a buzzy pre-draft name who was selected 21st overall to the Miami Dolphins. Robinson was highly thought, but a rather unproductive edge rusher in college. Now, he brings a lot of speed to a fast Dolphins team. The lack of production speaks to a raw player though. Chop will make flashy plays but is likely to disappoint amongst NFL rookies in 2024.

Scouting Report

Robinson has shorter arms, is undersized, but very fast as an edge rusher. He has an adequate set of moves to get around offensive linemen and hurry a QB. He saw more success in 2022 than he did in 2023, seeing his hurries drop almost in half and his sack totals stay low. Despite the fourth-best pass rush grade last year, he only managed three sacks and five quarterback hits.

Chop makes the most of what he has, but struggles with form in the running game. This results in a lot of missed tackles or assignments which makes him a liability. He is best served as a rotational edge to start his career while he adds weight and learns the finer points of the position.

Roadblocks and Situation

Outside of the fact that Robinson is a raw player, the Dolphins also have a fair amount of competition in front of him. Bradley Chubb is entrenched as one of the premier outside linebackers on this team. The Dolphins also signed Shaq Barrett this offseason. Barrett might not be the 15 sack player he was a few years ago, but is still a decent talent and veteran who understands the position. He graded well enough last season and poses a threat to that edge rotation.

Most importantly, Jaelan Phillips is in front of Robinson right now. Phillips is a young player who has shown a good deal of potential when healthy. He will not be ready for the season as he recovers from an Achilles tear, but Phillips will eventually be knocking on the door to take snaps away from Chop. This makes it likely that Robinson sees closer to 30 percent of the snaps than 50-60 percent, with risk of dropping if he underperforms.

Conclusion

Robinson is a very raw player who needs time to develop. As a first round talent, fans might expect him to step in and produce right away. Instead, he may be a player who needs to be limited, only used in certain passing situations surrounded by historically productive players. This will make it a tall hill to climb to be productive year one. It also makes him a prime candidate to be one of the NFL rookies likely to disappoint in 2024.