In my last (and first) post-draft hangover article, I admittedly took some layups. A lot of the guys I highlighted are players the fantasy football community’s been talking about for weeks. The likes of James Robinson and Marquise Brown are clear draft losers; Lamar Jackson and Myles Gaskin obvious winners. But this here’s the sequel, so it’s time to up the ante.
As discussed last time, we’re clinging to any and every bit of news we can get from the NFL like a denim vest-wearing, drug-dealing monkey clings to life after being shot by a Thai gangster riding a motorcycle. We’re in desperate need of a little fantasy football action, so I’m here to give you that extra bump to get you through these dark days.
What does that mean for Part II? Well, that means it’s sleeper time. Here are the skill position players I like at this way-too-early stage of the game, along with a few guys I’m putting on ice. It’s not that I want to plant my flag at this point in the offseason, but it’s ‘go big or go home’ time. And if we can’t argue about the value of early-to-late round fantasy football draft picks in May, what are we really doing with our lives… Really?
(A little housekeeping before we begin: all rankings information to follow is taken from Fantasy Pros’ Dynasty Rankings consensus from the 36 experts who have updated their rankings post-draft.)
Now that that’s out of the way, strap on your helmet with a little banana on it, sit back and enjoy the ride. Part II is here to put you to sleep… but like… you know… keep you awake while… or awaken your senses to… well, uh… just… just keep reading.
Sleepers
(the guys who aren’t khao)
credit: businessinsider.com via Warner Bros.
We’re looking for a few guys who won’t end up like soft, white rice in lukewarm water by season’s end. We’re looking for the diamonds in the rough. The needles in the haystack. We need guys like Stu on a bender: guys with a little demon inside of them.
Here’s a few players I like who have a chance to regain the memories of the player they used to be (or the player they should’ve been all along):
AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
Ranking: RB32, 88th overall
The Green Bay Packers re-signed Aaron Jones this offseason for four additional years and a grand total of $48 million. If that doesn’t declare faith in a 26-year-old running back, I don’t know what does. However, like many contracts inked this offseason, the deal is backloaded and only guarantees $13 million. While I’m not saying that Green Bay will move on from Jones any time soon, I am convinced that second-year running back AJ Dillon will get more run than many expect.
Simply looking at usage patterns over Matt LaFleur’s two years as head coach, former RB2 Jamaal Williams averaged 148 touches over that span. Add in Dillon’s 48 touches from a year ago and LaFleur’s commitment to the running game, and the hulking back is in line to be a productive backup with sky-high potential if Jones misses time. And none of this is assuming Jordan Love starting at quarterback, which would likely cause LaFleur to lean on the run game that much more.
Dillon is a premiere depth option who’s just 23 years old, so I’ll be targeting him once most of the starting backs are off the board.
[pickup_prop id=”5638″]
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
Ranking: WR42, 93rd overall
It’s no secret that the Houston Texans have been an absolute dumpster fire since last March when they dealt away perennial Pro Bowler DeAndre Hopkins for an aging David Johnson, his inflated salary, and a few draft picks. Since that time, the downward spiral has been evident. Houston may now be the worst team in the entire league with a new head coach, a new GM, and maybe even a new starting quarterback in charge of righting the ship this season.
All of this has led to the depressed value of many Texans’ assets in fantasy football, but only Brandin Cooks has the talent, proven production, and relative youth to be a value in dynasty startups. Still just 27 years old, Cooks has notched 110+ targets and 1,000+ yards in five of his seven years in the league – with four different teams.
Cooks is the presumed WR1 on this team, and there is a chance All-Pro quarterback DeShaun Watson sees the field in 2020 and beyond. If so, he’s a tremendous value at the wide receiver position. If not, he’s still a good bet to exceed his WR42 ranking as he’s proven to be quarterback-proof in his career thus far.
Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Ranking: TE9, 96th overall
Kyle Rudolph is in New York. Kirk Cousins remains entrenched as the starting QB. The wide receiver group did not welcome a significant upgrade via free agency or the draft. For all of these reasons, Irv Smith is one of my biggest bets to exceed his ranking in 2021. Though many are rising on his ability and opportunity, I’m still of the mind that they are far too low on the 22-year-old.
Over the past two years, Smith has averaged 45 targets per season. Kyle Rudolph has averaged 42 over the same span. With a career catch-rate of 73%, that puts Irv in line for 63 catches and over 600 yards with an increased TD opportunity.
Even if some extra looks go to stud wideout Justin Jefferson and whoever becomes the WR3 in Minnesota, there’s still a very good chance Irv is a top-10 TE in 2021 with tons of room to grow as he develops over the next decade.
Deeper Sleepers
(the guys we stuffed in the freezer too soon)
credit: imdb.com via Warner Bros.
We’re also looking for the guys who show up, seemingly out of nowhere. One phone call and they’re there with their speed boat, jetting off to Bangkok with you and a boatload of… fantasy football points. This section is filled with guys who don’t look like difference makers, though the opportunity and volume potential is there for fantasy football managers to consider unlocking the icebox and letting them thaw out.
Here are a few guys I like to drastically exceed their current rankings.
Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Ranking: RB49, 150th overall
Gus Edwards is somewhat of an afterthought in the Ravens offense, and I get it. J.K. Dobbins showed out in his first year in the league and quarterback Lamar Jackson is a massive vulture to rushing production across the board. However, there’s still space in this offense for a productive second running back, even if the Ravens look to balance out their play-calling as offensive coordinator Greg Roman has promised.
With Mark Ingram now in Houston, Edwards is the clear 1B to Dobbins 1A in this backfield. He’ll get plenty of run each week with the ability to step in and handle the load should Dobbins go down. And, if the offense does in fact open up, the result will be fewer stacked boxes and less predictability which should translate to bigger holes for the backs to run through.
I’m grabbing the 26-year-old Edwards everywhere I can, even if it means reaching a bit to secure him.
John Brown, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Ranking: WR70, 171st overall
It’s no surprise that many aren’t discussing the potential of a 31-year-old wide receiver who’s transitioning to his fourth team in eight years in the league. Further, said wide receiver has significant health concerns and only caught 33 balls for 458 yards a season ago while his quarterback put up MVP-caliber numbers. That wide receiver, of course, is John “Smokey” Brown; and he’s got next-to-no competition for targets now that he’s in Vegas.
While some are calling for Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and even Kenyan Drake to break out this season, most are neglecting the upside that Brown still possesses. At this point, we know that Derek Carr is a good quarterback and that Darren Waller will dominate the middle of the field at tight end. What remains to be seen is who will play the outside threat in the Raiders’ offense with the departure of both Nelson Agholor and Tyrell Williams.
For me, it’s Brown; who is a good bet for potentially 100 targets and 1,000 yards if he can stay on the field.
[pickup_prop id=”5738″]
Anthony Firkser, TE, Tennessee Titans
Ranking: TE29, 222nd overall
After A.J. Brown, the Titans offense lacks pass-catching ability now that both Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith took lucrative offers from other squads this offseason. All of that adds up to a massive opportunity for someone, though the difficulty is selecting just who will see the largest share.
Given that free agent acquisition Josh Reynolds is the only clear competition for targets, we can make some assumptions. If we give Reynolds around 100 targets and AJB the 150 he likely deserves, that still leaves 158 or so targets for Anthony Firkser and company to split – using the combined numbers distributed to the wideouts and tight ends last season in Arthur Smith’s offense. New OC Todd Downing isn’t likely to reinvent the wheel, but it would be difficult to envision fewer team targets than the 466 from a year ago.
Target share and it’s redistribution is an inexact science, but 100 targets is not out of the question for Firkser, who should take a huge step forward in this offense as the unquestioned TE1 in the Titans’ aerial attack.
Fast Asleep
(the guys trapped in an elevator, waiting for rescue that may never come)
credit: Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/popculturegeek/5977014578
They can’t all be winners. These players have made beautiful music at the professional level and cut up defenders like master surgeons at times. However, I’m betting they’ll let us down in 2021 and beyond based on the lofty expectations we’ve set for them going forward.
Below are a few players who I’m avoiding at all costs in dynasty:
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Ranking: RB20, 47th overall
This one’s a bit of a layup as Kenyan Drake’s arrival and the departure of nearly the entire starting offensive line from one year ago has made Jacobs a popular regression candidate. But it’s more than just these completely valid observations for me. It’s that volume has propped Jacobs up more than anything else in his first two years in the league.
As the NFL as a whole appears to be looking to spell their lead backs and increase their longevity, backs like Jacobs are expected to see their opportunity share shrink. Jacobs’ 273 carries was third in the league last season behind only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook, yet he tallied 1,000 yards fewer than Henry and 500 fewer than Cook. With poor efficiency, a poor offensive line, and a significant volume decline incoming, Jacobs is not an RB2 for me in dynasty.
Though he’s still got two years left on his rookie deal, I’d be surprised if Jacobs turns his inefficiency around before he seeks out a new deal. I’m staying far away.
[pickup_prop id=”5539″]
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Ranking: WR37, 77th overall
I really like Adam Thielen. The dude just consistently wins at the wide receiver position. But if you think I’m going to bet on a 30-year-old wideout to put up more double-digit touchdown seasons as the team’s clear second option, you’re crazy.
With Dalvin Cook in his prime, Justin Jefferson becoming a superstar, and Irv Smith developing into a TE1, the possibility exists that Thielen begins to get phased out of this offense as early as 2021. While it’s more likely we see another year or two of elite production, keep in mind that Thielen played 15 games last season and saw just 108 targets; and still didn’t manage to record 1,000 yards. His 14 TDs were keeping him in the upper echelon of fantasy football wide receivers, and I’d bet Jefferson and Smith eat into that total right away.
While Thielen’s age is baked into his ranking, I still can’t pull the trigger on a guy who will soon be a better real life option than a fantasy one.
Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos
Ranking: TE7, 72nd overall
Noah Fant is as athletically gifted as any tight end in the league. And, to his credit, he’s had to endure the likes of Joe Flacco and Drew Lock throwing him the rock in his first two years in the league. And there’s more – notably the fact that tight ends don’t traditionally break out until later in their careers. Fant is only 23 years old.
But it’s his TE7 ranking and the unquestioned love of the dynasty community has me wondering what Lock or newly-acquired quarterback Teddy Bridgewater could bring to significantly bolster Fant’s bottom line. Additionally, a healthy Courtland Sutton and Albert Okwuegbunam, a developing Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, and 2nd round draft pick Javonte WIlliams should all see more targets than they (or their equivalent in the offense) did last season, potentially siphoning targets away from Fant.
Given his current price and situation, I’m all the way out on the talented youngster in fantasy football. Especially since there’s no significant quarterback upgrade in sight.
That’s it for Part II of this three-part series. Stay tuned for the final installment as I take a look at some of the hottest early takes imaginable for the 2021 fantasy football season. Don’t miss it!
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.