Believe me when I say this, this has to be one the most active NFL off-seasons I’ve ever seen. To an extent, a lot of that has been influenced by an unusual season last year due to Covid-19 and so many collegiate players opting not to play football last year.
It’s a safe bet to say many teams identified known assets and went after them in free agency. The same could be said concerning the NFL Draft as well. Much of this is spearheaded by plenty of quarterbacks finding either new homes or new money (Dak Prescott & Carson Wentz).
With next season’s schedule officially announced, we are now in the quietest phase of the NFL off-season. However, there are a few moves possibly on the horizon that might make a lot of noise as we head into the summer leading up to the 2021 NFL campaign.
Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys
My heart isn’t too far from where my mind is when discussing the Dallas Cowboys; especially when discussing the much-maligned Jaylon Smith. I know players oftentimes tell the media that they don’t pay too much attention to the outside noise. Still, I find it hard to believe that the additions Dallas made to their linebacker core went unnoticed by Smith; Adding converted safety Keanu Neal in free agency, and drafting 2 linebackers in last month’s draft. (Micah Parsons & Jabril Cox)
As mentioned on @1053thefan, Dallas intends to play Smith at SAM linebacker. With so many teams playing almost exclusively in Nickel packages, (four down lineman and two linebackers) this doesn’t bode well for Smith if he hopes to see a significant role this season.
That said, the adage of “follow the money” may be exactly what’s keeping Smith from playing elsewhere in 2021. A dead cap charge of 16.6M this season almost assures Jaylon Smith is in Dallas for at least one more season.
Chance of being traded: 10%
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns
There was a time when Odell Beckham Jr. was one of the most electric players in all of football. Hands that rivaled DeAndre Hopkins and breakaway speed perhaps only second to Tyreek Hill. Ironically enough, that’s how fast it seems the career trajectory of Beckham has turned.
Injuries are certainly to blame as Beckham has not played a full slate more than twice in his six-year career. Much more was expected of Beckham when the Cleveland Browns sent their first and third-round pick of the 2019 draft in the deal to acquire him.
A Beckham trade is primarily complicated by his health status, (suffered a torn ACL last season) but very much possible if a team is willing to take on the risk. Cleveland doesn’t have much in the way of playmakers at wide receiver and the depth looks rather slim behind Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins.
However, Cleveland proved that last year that their ground attack featuring Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb was more than sufficient. Also, it should be noted that Beckham doesn’t have any guaranteed money on his contract after this season.
Chance of being traded: 25%
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
These next few are much more likely, starting with Deshaun Watson. Compared to the others on this list, Watson is in a unique situation. He’s entering his physical prime, has just received a massive payday, and is easily one of the game’s best quarterbacks.
As many of us know, earlier this offseason Watson voiced his displeasure with the Houston Texans organization; citing frustration with the team not including him in the search for a new general manager and former Texans players insisting Watson stick to his guns and choose to play elsewhere. In the time since Watson made his initial trade request, things haven’t mended themselves and it seems Watson isn’t budging on his request.
If Houston does choose to give in to Watson’s demands, they would be on the hook for dead cap hit of a whopping 67.1M for this season (51.2M next season). On its surface, this may seem unlikely – but that hasn’t stopped teams from inquiring about Watson; and he could still demand a sizable return in exchange to ease the financial burden.
However, since the Texans still hold the rights to Watson, they could levy major fines for him not reporting to the team this summer. They also don’t have the best reputation among NFL teams of doing right by their players. I do think it’s more than plausible that Houston calls his bluff and decides not to trade him. Plus, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the off-the-field circumstances surrounding Watson, which are murky, to say the least. I’m splitting this one down the middle and saying it truly is 50/50 whether Watson plays in Houston next season.
Chance of being traded: 50%
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Assuming the team and player can find a suitable trade partner, this one seems like a matter of when, not if. Zach Ertz has been a staple for the Eagles since being drafted in 2013. If the Eagles offseason has proven anything however, it’s that they’re certainly a team in transition – and Ertz may be in the wrong place, at the wrong time.
A trade makes all the more sense when you evaluate the situation further from both sides. Despite being one of the league’s most productive tight ends, Ertz is coming off a down season in 2020 by his standards; The team could easily see this as the right time to unload Ertz. Philadelphia does have a viable option on the roster in Dallas Goedert so it’s reasonable to understand why the Eagles would choose to part ways with the veteran tight end.
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Also, from Ertz’s perspective, he does still carry some value. He now has the power to dictate where he would like to be, as a rebuild in Philadelphia may not be his preferred choice. Fortunately for Ertz and the Eagles, Ertz is in the final year of his contract. A team who views themselves as a contender won’t be reluctant to make a push for the three-time pro bowler.
Ertz could easily take this opportunity and parlay it into one last big contract with a chance at a ring, with the Buffalo Bills, Indianpolis Colts, and Cincinnati Bengals as logical destinations.
Chance of being traded: 75%
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
On the surface, none of this rumor should add up to Green Bay trading arguably a top-5 quarterback of all-time. Aaron Rodgers IS the Green Bay Packers and has been for almost 15 years. When you consider Rodgers is under contract for three years more years and with a dead cap charge of 38M for this season, that should be enough to keep Rodgers in Dairyland for some time.
However, I’ve learned to never underestimate the power of the quarterback in today’s NFL; and more importantly, the will of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has never been one to mince words and more often than not, there’s a conviction when he speaks. Let’s also remember, that moments before the draft began, many alluded that a trade involving Rodgers between the Packers and the Denver Broncos was “close to a done deal”.
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It’s not far-fetched to believe that’s still a possibility. While Denver did acquire Teddy Bridgewater, passing up on Justin Fields with the 9th pick in the draft draws speculation to a greater plan in mind by the Broncos. If that’s not convincing enough, look at how Green Bay has responded to Rodgers’ demanding of a trade.
As Adam Schefter has reported, Rodgers has expressed to the Green Bay organization that he does not want to report back to the team. Team officials have taken Rodgers very seriously in his request, with members of the front office flying out personally to meet with Rodgers; That also included head coach Matt LaFleur.
One could say the Packers made their flower bed in the cemetery to sleep in once they drafted Jordan Love with their first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. While Green Bay has taken Jordan Love for the future, it looks like Aaron Rodgers is looking past the Packers, and for both sides, this may need to be resolved in no time like the present.
Chance of being traded: 100%
