NFL free agency is one of the most exciting times of the offseason. It’s where you can see new faces on new teams, old faces returning, and others faced with the possiblity of seeing their market value completely collapse. This offseason, we’ve seen it all; and with it, comes its potential impact on fantasy football. With that, we’re going to take a glance at who won big in free agency, and who saw their value tank for fantasy football purposes.
Derek Carr is in The Big Easy and finds himself reunited with Dennis Allen, who was Carr’s head coach when he was drafted by the Raiders in 2014. He also finds himself surrounded by incredible playmakers.
Carr loves to throw the ball deep, as his 6.6 CAY/Cmp (completed air yards per attempt) would suggest – good for 7th in the NFL; and he’ll have a perfect running mate in Chris Olave, who accounted for 38.61% of the Saints air yards last year, also good for 7th in the NFL.
The Saints offense should be the best offense Carr has played with – if they can stay healthy. A dynamic running back duo in Jamaal Williams and Alvin Kamara should keep defenses honest; while a receiving core of Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, and yes, Taysom Hill, should give Carr enough firepower to be a QB1 for in 2023.
If you know me, you know I’ve been a Sam Howell truther since he played at UNC. I believed he was the QB1 of the 2022 draft class, and he’s finally getting his shot to be QB1 for the Washington Commanders.
With the Washington Commanders officially ‘out’ on the Lamar Jackson sweepstakes, Sam Howell has all the opportunity in the world to make a name for himself in NFL, and fantasy football circles.
Howell will have elite playmakers in Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Brian Robinson on offense. He’ll also be coached by Eric Bieniemy, the former OC for the Kansas City Chiefs. If Bieniemy is as good as advertised, he should be able to take this offense, and Howell, to the next level.
Fields was an obvious candidate here, but considering I’ve already written about his situation this offseason, I wanted to discuss other players.
Tony Pollard entered NFL free agency with a broken leg, but he’ll leave it as the RB1 for the Dallas Cowboys.
The 2019 third-round pick had a breakout season in 2022. Pollard finished as the RB8 in fantasy football PPR leagues. He had 1378 scrimmage yards, 12 total touchdowns and finished third in the NFL in RYOE (rushing yards over expected). Pollard broke his fibula in a playoff game against the 49ers, but his production forced the Cowboys to make a decision for 2023.
In the end, the Dallas Cowboys chose to give Pollard the franchise tag; and they cut former 1st round pick Ezekiel Elliott in the process.
Pollard’s injury should have little-to-no effect on his production in 2023. There’s rumors that the Cowboys could draft Bijan Robinson, but hopefully that Jerry Jones-esque nonsense is nothing more than noise. It should be the Tony Pollard show for Dallas in 2023, and potentially, beyond.
Perine played admirably in 2022 when filling in for Joe Mixon. He carried that success into the playoffs, where he played more than any other RB on the roster through the Bengals’ three playoff games.
It was surprising when Perine wasn’t retained by the Bengals, but he landed in a great spot with the Denver Broncos.
Perine signed a two-year, $7.5M contract with the Broncos. With Javonte Williams unlikely to be 100% healthy for 2023, Perine has an excellent chance to showcase himself this season – both for the NFL, and fantasy football managers.
When Miles Sanders signed to the Carolina Panthers in NFL free agency, the Gainwell train was already rolling. And even though the Eagles signed Rashaad Penny, it’s impossible to ignore the potential upside of Gainwell this year.
I understand that there are a plethora of Penny-truthers out there. For what it’s worth, he’s an excellent pure runner. With that said, Gainwell can do things that Penny just hasn’t done yet in his career.
Gainwell should be a perfect complement to Penny. Kenny G has already shown his prowess as a 3rd-down RB, and should be the 2-minute back in Philly this season. We saw his usage increase in the playoffs, and I believe that will continue into the 2023 season.
Like the Justin Fields above, I chose to avoid writing about Herbert here since I highlighted him as a buy low candidate prior to the start of NFL free agency.
I will forever be on record that the Cowboys made a grave mistake getting rid of Amari Cooper. With that said, it’s hard to ignore the boost that Cooks received when he was traded to the Dallas Cowboys during the 2023 NFL free agency period. The Houston Texans traded Cooks to the Cowboys in exchange for a 2023 fifth-round pick and a 2024 sixth-round pick.
Cooks went from catching passes from Davis Mills, to Dak Prescott. He also doesn’t have to worry about consistent double-teams, as his new running mate is one of the best WRs in the NFL in CeeDee Lamb.
2022 saw Cooks post his lowest receiving numbers since 2019. If he can stay healthy, it’s hard not to see him return to fantasy relevance in 2023.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the new man in New England, and Moore seems like he’s the next man up in Kansas City.
Andy Reid specifically mentioned Skyy Moore as the man to step up in JuJu’s absence, and I’m taking his word for it. Sure, the team could draft another WR in the 2023 NFL Draft. With that said, it seems hard to believe the Chiefs are going to throw away their 54th overall pick from the 2022 NFL Draft.
Let’s be frank, the WR1 in a Kansas City offense is going to produce for fantasy football. While I don’t expect Moore to hit the Tyreek-level of production this season, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see him replicate – or best – JuJu’s numbers (WR27 in PPR leagues) from 2022.
KJ Osborn has had a helluva offseason. It started with him saving someone’s life by pulling them from a burning car. And now he finds himself as the Vikings WR2 after Adam Thielen left for the Carolina Panthers in free agency.
Osborn has proven to be incredibly effective when targeted. And, despite his slow start to the 2022 campaign, he finished off the year on an incredibly high note.
Considering the Vikings didn’t add any relevant pass-catchers in free agency, it’s likely the Vikings look to add talent in the NFL draft. Depending on how much capital the team uses at the position, Osborn could see his stock continue to rise.
Juwan Johnson burst on to the scene in 2022, catching 42 passes for 508 yards and 7 touchdowns. He also finished the season as the TE15 in PPR leagues – but the TE8 in standard formats. During Weeks 7-15, Johnson had five top-10 fantasy performances. And that’s including his bye week and him missing Week 13 against Tampa Bay.
Instead of letting Johnson hit NFL free agency, the New Orleans Saints re-signed the 26-year old tight end to a 2 year, $12M contract. On top of that, he will go from catching passes from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr, a marketable improvement.
Regardless of how you feel about Derek Carr or the Saints, it’s impossible to ignore the rising star of Juwan Johnson and his potential for 2023.
With the Cowboys letting Dalton Schultz walk in free agency, the door opens for Ferguson to take over. He showed promise as a rookie, but the NFL draft will determine how big of a future he has in Dallas.
Trey Lance has played in 27 total games since 2018. No, that is not a typo. It’s also why he finds himself as one of the biggest losers from NFL free agency.
The 49ers signed Sam Darnold to a one-year, $4.5M contract. On its face, that doesn’t seem like much. It’s essentially a security signing while the 49ers starter recoups from injury. Only, it’s not Trey Lance who’s presumed to be the starter in 2023, it’s Brock Purdy.
Even if you don’t believe in offseason chatter, it’s hard to ignore it when it’s coming out of Lance’s mouth as well.
Lance has seen his dynasty stock plummet since last season. At this time last year, Lance was a top-100 pick. Now his ADP is at 145, and seeing a value free-fall for a second time. Lance went from a community darling, to Brock Purdy’s backup. Let that sink in.
When NFL free agency began, it was widely speculated that Jamaal Williams would either return to the Detroit Lions, or sign for a much larger deal than what he signed in 2021. After all, he did break the Lions record for rushing touchdowns, previously held by Barry Sanders. He also finished the year as the RB13 in PPR formats. Instead, he landed in New Orleans on a three-year deal worth $12 million.
Williams landing with the Saints limits the ceiling of both Kamara and Williams. There’s a chance the duo can re-enact the days of Kamara and Mark Ingram, but that’s more wishful thinking than anything. We’re likely to see a head-scratching-at-times committee approach be used here, with Williams and Kamara likely in the RB2 median.
Of course, this situation could change dramatically pending Kamara’s legal case. But as of right now, I’m considering both losers – in terms of fantasy value impacted – in this free agency period.
Heading into the offseason, Jakobi Meyers was the undisputed WR1 available in NFL free agency; so it was a surprise to see him head to Las Vegas on a pedestrian contract. Meyers signed what could be potentially a one-year deal as well, considering his dead cap drops from $10.5M this season, to $3.6M in 2024.
To some, Meyer’s signing seems like the end for Hunter Renfrow instead, but I disagree. The Raiders had an option to move on from Renfrow before giving his guaranteed money for the 2023 season, and they opted not to do so.
For NFL reasons, I think the signing was good. It gives the Raiders plenty of offensive flexibility with Jimmy G under center. For fantasy football purposes, I think Meyers and Renfrow will eat into each other’s ceiling. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked for one of them to perform well, this is a scenario where as of right now, it’s hard for any fantasy managers to conclude there’s a winner here.
Lost in the midst of the offseason is Kyler Murray’s ACL tear. Murray is already unlikely to be ready by the midway point of the ’23 season, and it could take even longer for the QB to return; as Ian Rapoport reported that Murray is going to take his time returning from injury. That spells bad news for Marquise Brown in 2023.
Brown was on a tear to start the 2022 season. Through the first six weeks, Brown was the WR7 in PPG in fantasy PPR leagues. Then, he fractured his foot and missed the next five weeks. When he returned, he was without Kyler Murray, faced competition with DeAndre Hopkins, and finished as the WR58 from Weeks 12-18.
It’s possible that the Cardinals move on from DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, as the vet’s openly being shopped around by the team. With that said, the Cardinals are likely to draft a WR. The team also chose to forego acquiring a legitimate backup QB, meaning Colt McCoy will likely open the season at quarterback.
I am incredibly high on Brown the player, but he seems liked a cursed player; whether that’s the offensive scheme, hurt quarterbacks, or injuries to himself.
To be honest, Daniel Bellinger seemed like one of the few good things going on the Giants offense – other than Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones – in the first half of the year. He then suffered a freak eye injury in Week 7, but managed to return in Week 13 and finished the season. I personally thought that he had the potential to be the next Jeremy Shockey for the team, but they had other plans.
Then, on March 14, the Giants traded the 100th overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders for elite pass-catching TE, Darren Waller. What’s worse is that Waller could stay on the Giants for the entirety of his contract; four years for $52.5M.
Since Bellinger was only a fourth-round pick in 2022, his likelihood of being relevant in fantasy football again are slim to none – outside of an injury to Waller.
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