As our name suggests, The League Winners are here to help managers win fantasy football leagues. Yet how does one win their league? This is not a trick question; scoring more points than your opponent is how you win your league! One of the best ways to do that is to find production at the tight-end position in your drafts. An even better way is to find the TE1 in any given year.
A bad tight end can sink an otherwise rock-solid fantasy football roster. Meanwhile, a great tight end can turn a good team into an elite team.
Last year we saw Trey McBride, David Njoku, and Sam LaPorta vault their teams into league winners as massive tight end values. This year’s tight ends that will emerge are similarly overlooked and can be had in your drafts for a very low cost.
Methodology
To find the TE1, I went back through and looked at who had done it before. The criteria are:
- 115+ projectable targets.
Very rarely has a top-3 tight end in Half-PPR received under 115 targets in the last five years. The main exception each year is George Kittle. However, in 2021 Dalton Schultz broke in with only 104 targets. Meanwhile, Robert Tonyan broke into the top-3 in 2020 with a mere 59 targets. Besides those two, every other top-3 tight end in the last five years has had over 115 targets.
- Red zone opportunities
The two exceptions to the aforementioned target rule above had excellent touchdown luck. They did so by securing a lot of red zone opportunities.
Tonyan seemed to only find the end zone on his targets, with 11 touchdowns in his top-3 finish. Schultz had eight touchdowns himself, though extreme efficiency was more what made him excel.
Last year, LaPorta worked his way to TE1 largely because of his red zone efficiency. He finished with 10 touchdowns compared to Evan Engram‘s four and Travis Kelce‘s five. Red zone work is not always easy to predict, but a share of the work is at least somewhat projectable.
- A good offense
This is fairly self-explanatory, but without a good offense any targets a tight end sees might – A, not be valuable or catchable targets. Or B, will likely limit their total opportunities in the red zone.
- Athleticism
Fantasy football managers need a tight end to be able to separate, get yards after the catch (YAC), and go up and get the ball. Without elite-level athletic traits, tight ends struggle to be elite fantasy options tending to middling rather than excelling.
The Sneaky Candidates
These players are far from obvious picks. In fact, they are longshots. On top of that, this is a tough tier to break into, seemingly more so than in years past. However, these players have a really good chance of stepping up into fantasy goodness.
Greg Dulcich
This is my guy. If I had to pin one tight end to break out and join the upper echelon of tight ends it would be Greg Dulcich. He checks all the boxes besides being in a good offense.
Opportunity
Dulcich finds himself in an enviable position for opportunity. The Denver Broncos shipped off Jerry Jeudy after a rocky start to his career in the Rocky Mountains. The move left Courtland Sutton as the only proven option in the offense. Marvin Mims showed promise last year, Josh Reynolds is a steady vet, and Troy Franklin is a divisive rookie albeit with established chemistry with Bo Nix.
Dulcich could easily take the No. 2 role in this offense and see a ton of targets. Currently, I would project him to be second among targets on this team – health permitting.
The Player
First of all, the hair! It’s beautiful. It would be a shame if Dulcich did not become the tight end Troy Polamalu. After that though, Dulcich has been good when on the field.
In college, he was a semi-finalist for the John Mackey Award which is the best tight end in college football. After being drafted in the third round, he had a very solid rookie year with 33 receptions for 411 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did all that in 10 games as he missed time due to injury.
Dulcich’s lack of red zone usage is a little bit worrying. However, a receiver of his quality is an asset that should see a good amount of endzone targets and red zone creativity.
Dulcich also has the requisite athleticism to break into TE1 conversation for fantasy football. He ran a 4.69 at the combine with excellent explosiveness and intermediate area quickness with an 89th percentile broad jump and a 72nd percentile three-cone. It shows up on the field with 4.8 yards after the catch per reception. There is one major red flag though.
Injuries are unfortunately a common theme for Dulcich. If he has one limiting factor, it is his lower body. He missed almost all of last year with hamstring issues. It’s not out of the realm to question if he can ever stay on the field for an extended period. If he can stay on the field Dulcich should continue to be a good, explosive athlete with the ball in his hands.
How Greg Dulcich Becomes the TE1
The path is fairly easy as long as his hamstrings cooperate. Dulcich needs to win Nix’s favor and become the go-to short area, intermediate target option. He does need some touchdown luck to fall his way, though, as the Broncos offense isn’t anticipated to score a lot this year.
Assuming he can do both of those things, Dulcich could be in line for a big year. An 80 reception, 1,000-yard, 6-8 touchdown season is well within the range of possibilities. Even better, as a virtually undrafted player, fantasy managers can stock up at running back, wide receiver, and quarterback early in your draft and pounce on Dulcich with your 10-12th round selection.
Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth has been pretty solid in his NFL career so far. In year one he managed to score seven touchdowns on 60 receptions for 497 yards. In year two the touchdowns dropped to two, and his receptions stayed mostly the same at 63. However, his yardage jumped to 732.
Last year he struggled to stay healthy. He also had to deal with Kenny Pickett being a below-average quarterback. Now in year four, a jump in production should be anticipated.
Opportunity to Produce
Much like Dulcich, the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ top wide receiver Diontae Johnson left via trade. Even better for Freiermuth is that Johnson leaves 87 vacated targets from last year and a role behind that was soaking around 150 targets on a 17-game pace each year.
With that gone, George Pickens is left to be the WR1, but there is no clear WR2 on this team. Pickens, like Sutton, also operates deep and almost exclusively on the boundaries. This leaves the middle of the field open for Freiermuth to operate.
The Steelers also upgraded at QB – one way or another.
Russell Wilson had a relatively solid year in a return to form. Justin Fields, albeit with warts, would also be a substantial upgrade over Pickett. The Steelers should throw the ball a little more this season and find themselves with more red zone opportunities than they did last year which should allow Freiermuth to once again see end zone targets.
The Player
Freiermuth is not just huge at 6 feet 5 inches and 260 pounds. He also has some juice for his size.
Freiermuth averaged over 4.1 YAC in his two healthy seasons, breaking 6+ tackles those two years as well. His best skill is that he finds a way to beat linebackers and find soft spots in coverage consistently.
Freiermuth’s route running is very good for a tight end, and his hands help him make huge plays like this catch versus the Buffalo Bills. The all-around game could bring him up, even if he does not quite have next-level athleticism like David Njoku types.
The Path for a Pat Freiermuth TE1 Season
Arthur Smith will not play the same games that got him fired in Atlanta. The Steelers tight end should see a bump in targets from about 90 per 17 games, to 120-130; thus soaking up a portion of Diontae Johnson’s vacated targets.
A reasonable projection for Freiermuth this season is 85 receptions for 1,050 yards and 10 touchdowns. Yet a higher number is easily achievable if his efficiency is closer to his rookie year than last season.
Freiermuth is a little riskier than Dulcich to be average instead of stellar for fantasy football. Yet he’s safer to be good, instead of dropped by Week 4. If Pickens misses time as well it’s hard to find a player on this team more apt to be “The Guy” than Muth.
Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry? The old, washed-up, former Los Angeles Charger Hunter Henry? Yes, the very same!
The New England Patriots have had it rough the last few years. There is hope with Drake Maye now, finally, after the Mac Jones experience was predictably middling. Henry could benefit and the path is very clear for him to finally have the tight end one season predicted for him so long ago.
Opportunity
Henry is going to be the primary tight end for this team. Austin Hooper is not a threat to anyone. And that’s about all they have in terms of challengers – despite a sect of fans believing Jaheim Bell will surpass Henry.
The wide receiver room is also thin for New England. They have tried to upgrade time and time again but failed at every corner – besides the draft.
The room of Pop Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, K.J. Osborn, and Javon Baker while Kendrick Bourne recovers from his ACL tear is simply not inspiring. There is upside in the rookies and Douglas but let’s assume that they don’t quite work out as true threats and are complementary pieces. That leaves Henry with a chance to take over.
Henry has never seen more than 93 targets in his career. Last year in a similar receiving room with the Patriots he saw only 61 targets. History tells us that he probably won’t see the 115+ we need. If the Patriots pass more under Jerod Mayo though, the uptick in volume could get him there.
This is especially true if Maye is at least average. Without a clear primary receiving target, Henry could establish himself as a favorite for the new QB1. There, he could find himself soaking up short area volume and is already established as this team’s red zone threat.
The Player
Henry is only a short-area, intermediate receiver. His once-exciting athleticism has been worn down by injuries and natural aging. He still has excellent hands and jump-ball ability. Yet it’s his red zone capabilities are where he gets the hard work done.
Henry has a career 11 percent touchdown rate – which is excellent. There is almost no run after the catch but the burst and leaping ability lets Henry still be special at the catchpoint. He has proven to be a reliable player and at times shows the ability to be special.
The Path to a Hunter Henry TE1 Finish
Henry needs a lot to break his way. If he can establish himself as the top target for Drake Maye he might finally see enough volume to break from mediocrity. If he can do that and stay healthy, all that he needs is the offense to be average. Henry is an elite red zone and end zone threat who should have no problem scoring touchdowns. So long as the volume around those touchdowns is there Henry could find himself the surprise tight end one.
The “If There is One Injury…” Candidates
Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson is not good enough to be in the TE1 conversation on his own. His red zone usage and potential role in the offense is good, but there may not be enough juice to see a leap into the TE1 conversation.
Last season Ferguson suffered from drops as well, which is concerning from a safety blanket. Securing the TE4 or TE5 spot in his future is possible with touchdown luck and Schultz-like efficiency. However, being the TE1 seems unlikely without some boost.
That said, if Ceedee Lamb were to ever go down, Ferguson probably sees a minimum of 10 targets per game. That volume could push almost anyone into the Te1 discussion. Dak Prescott is good enough that without Lamb he would find a way to keep this offense moving against all odds.
Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers is probably going to be a good rookie tight end, but there is too much target competition in a bad offense to vault into the TE1 discussion. However, if Davante Adams is traded or missed time though, Bowers has the talent to pull a Laporta-like season and be the TE1 as a rookie.
Bowers’ run-after-the-catch ability is similar to Kittle in terms of production, and he is a better route runner. Jakobi Meyers going down won’t open up enough opportunities for a team expected to be a low-scoring team – but Adams would.
Optimistically, Bowers could achieve 90-100 targets. If Adams leaves or goes down, though, 5-8 targets per game should be expected. With his talent that is more than enough for a second-half surge into tight end one discussion. Yet for now, Bowers seems to be over-drafted in fantasy football leagues.
The Must-Have Tier (Obvious Candidates)
There’s no reason to waste time explaining these players. This is the list of these players who are locked with a high chance at being the TE1.
Travis Kelce
Kelce is good and integral to arguably the best offense in football. He finished as the TE3 last year despite missing games and bad touchdown luck.
Sam LaPorta
Same role as last year, the same offense as last year, and fewer periphery weapons with Josh Reynolds gone. LaPorta seems to be a good bet to repeat his production. He may even have an uptick in volume with a slight regression in touchdowns.
Trey McBride
Electric finish to the year, still the No. 2 option, McBride should see 115+ targets in this offense. There is a slight concern about a downtick in volume with Marvin Harrison Jr in town, but that shouldn’t be warranted.
Mark Andrews
Andrews is good, Lamar Jackson is good, and the offense is good. Andrews is not likely to be TE1, but top-5 seems like a lock.
George Kittle
Kittle is a freak of nature who defies all methodology and logic by having two 200-yard and three touchdown games a year. He will probably do the same again.
Dalton Kincaid
The Buffalo Bills have nobody and fantasy football managers have taken notice with Dalton Kincaid reaching TE4 ADP on Sleeper App. Kincaid should hit the target total with ease, though there could be worry about Dawson Knox being a thorn in his side when it comes to playing time.
Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts is an athletic freak. The addition of Kirk Cousins, who drove T.J. Hockenson to TE1 status, only helps. It has been rough sailing, but believe in the unicorn.
The “It Probably Won’t Happen” Tier
This is another listed group of tight ends garnering some hype. However, without a lot of injuries and things going their way (extreme touchdowns or multiple busted coverage 80-yard touchdowns in a season, etc.) there just is not enough to be the TE1.
These players might be solid floor plays, consistent week-to-week, and may even a see spike week here or there. However, they will not be the TE1 in fantasy football this year.
Evan Engram
Engram has enough juice, but too crowded of an offense. He’s unlikely to see a repeat of the targets he saw last year. And at this point in his career, he’s not enough of a red zone threat to counter the target dip.
David Njoku
Njoku had an absolute fantastic end to last year. However, it looks like an aberration more than a trend.
Adding Jeudy to this offense and putting Deshaun Watson back in charge pushes Njoku in the wrong direction. He should have spike weeks, but there is not enough slice of this run-heavy pie for a tight end to emerge as the TE1.
Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert doesn’t have enough potential, and is in an offense that streamlines through outside wide receivers. Goedert is another with top-6 potential if injuries were to occur to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, but he won’t be a TE1 in fantasy football.
Ben Sinnott
Ben Sinnott has potential, but rookie tight ends tend to need some time to adjust to the league. On top of that, Zach Ertz will probably soak up targets and snaps in front of him to start the year. Between the Washington Commanders‘ litany of pass-catchers, there’s simply too much for him to properly break in and see the necessary volume.
Daniel Bellinger & Theo Johnson
It’s likely either one of these two will exceed their draft value. However, the New York Giants offense is going to be too putrid to allow for them to become the TE1.
Even if Malik Nabers is not good (unlikely) or hurt, the offense is mildly crowded from a passing attack standpoint with Wan’dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt around to soak up targets. There’s no room for either tight end to emerge properly here.
The “Taysom Hill” Tier
Taysom Hill is going to annoyingly be a top-5 tight end. He always seems to do it, regardless of the opinion of fantasy football managers. There is no predictability as to when he is going to score 30 points versus 0.8 points.
I’d be remiss if I did not mention him, but outside of deep two tight end formats or a Monday night football miracle play, Hill may not be worth drafting and starting.
The Rest
Anyone not listed above likely doesn’t have any realistic path to finishing at the TE1 in fantasy football this year. There is either too much in front of them, the players are not talented enough, or some combination of the two.
If fantasy football managers find themselves debating taking Cole Kmet or Tyler Conklin – avoid that urge. Reach for the upside and stay vigilant on waivers.
Spencer Buckley
Hi Everyone! I'm happy you read this far to see my bio. I am a full time football and baseball enthusiast who would have "100% made the show if I didn't get injured...". Also do some Lawyer stuff in my free time.