After all the anticipation, preparation, and analysis, the NFL draft has concluded, and rookie minicamps have transitioned into mandatory minicamps. Every team is putting out highlight reels of their fresh new faces leaping over defensive backs to snag a touchdown, or their new linebacker jumping a route at just the right time. Or, my personal favorite – the new quarterback throwing a 40-yard bomb against air for a reception. With these highlights and anticipation, it seems that they are all destined for greatness. While they are not all destined for greatness, many of these fresh-faced rookies will make some level of impact. Who will play above their draft capital? Who will emerge and show flashes of fulfilling their destiny to become one of the breakout rookies in the NFL in 2024? Fortunately for you, we have found a few players who fit the mold of the 2024 surprise rookies heading into the NFL season.
In general, my formula for finding the 2024 surprise rookies has been going through a checklist to see who fits these boxes:
Bo Nix has had a very rocky relationship with the media this off-season. Pre-Draft, NFL.com graded him at a 6.39 – which is a fairly good grade, and Lance Zierlein projected him as a 2nd-round prospect. Daniel Jeremiah had him as a top-50 prospect landing at 26. Ultimately taken 12th overall to the Denver Broncos, Nix seemed to be the last of the draftable quarterbacks in the class. And, it seems like the Broncos almost panic-selected him, regardless of what Sean Payton says. However, we like first-round draft capital, especially top-15 for a QB. Of course, we also all saw Bo Nix struggling to push the ball downfield against air this offseason. This all-over-the-map nature of his pre-draft process has led to Nix getting pushed way down relative to his first-round counterparts. So why will Nix surprise us?
Let’s start with the player: Bo Nix is good at what he does. His PFF scouting report shows a short area merchant, with a nationwide leading 85 percent adjusted completion percentage and only a 1 percent turnover-worthy play ratio. He did this largely by throwing behind the line of scrimmage and hitting the short area with precision and poise.
Nix handled pressure extremely well, with a 91.5 PFF pressure grade which was the best in class. His pressure-to-sack ratio was only 7.6 percent, the best in his class as well. What I think will most surprise people though is that Nix is an excellent running QB.
Between 2022 and 2023, Nix had 744 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns on 143 attempts. Just watch this Nix Scramble where he evades the pressure and gets 10 yards. That will play in the NFL and for our fantasy teams.
So how does he fit on the Broncos? Let’s look at Sean Payton’s offense first and foremost. Starting with the good Payton offense with Drew Brees; Nix compares favorably play style-wise to Brees, especially in his latter days. Between 2018 and 2020 Brees had a 7.1, 6.4, and 6.1 intended air yards per pass attempt. This led to a near-MVP season in 2018, and very solid years in 2019 and 2020. How did that hold up with Russell Wilson playing for Payton last year?
Wilson averaged 7.1 IAY/Att, a career-low by almost two whole air yards. This short-area, fast-paced passing attack is perfect for a player like Nix. He should help the offensive line out with his ability to sense pressure in a way that Russ could not, but Brees did so well for so many years. As the only competent quarterback in the Broncos QB room, Nix should get a chance to show that fit right away.
Unfortunately, Nix will have to overcome a bit of a shortage in terms of support. I do believe that his playstyle mitigates the need for big-time players. And, the Broncos have a good enough team around him. Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Josh Reynolds, and Troy Franklin is a solid enough WR core. Sutton has entered the “underrated” portion of his career, while Mims showed flashes of excellence. The wild card could be a healthy Greg Dulcich.
A reliable target with good after-the-catch ability like Dulcich could open things up and allow Nix to spread the ball out. If Javonte Williams can return to form and Jaleel Mclaughlin can continue to be a solid change of pace back, there is more than enough for Nix to turn out a surprisingly great season for a rookie QB. The offensive line was rated seventh-best last year by PFF, and outside of losing Cushenbury the unit is returning. This is a solid group to work with.
Nix meets a lot of the parameters for a surprise this year. While he might not be in the situation that fellow rookie Caleb Williams finds himself in, Nix has a good combination of talent, team buy-in, fit, and supporting cast to stand out. I think realistically we could find that Nix ends the year with 3,400 passing yards, 400 rushing yards, and 20+ total touchdowns. Given expectations this would make him one of our top rookies in the NFL for the 2024 season.
With Saquon Barkley gone, the New York Giants have a running back problem. Besides Devin Singletary, the Giants are left with Eric Gray and Tyrone Tracy, along with a few UDFA signings. On a team desperate for playmakers, Tracy has the ability and opportunity to show he belongs and could easily surprise us this year with a big-time, versatile role for the Giants.
Tracy is extremely green as a running back. He converted to the running back position in 2023 after five years as a receiver. He did play RB in high school, though that was six years ago now. Despite the lack of experience, Tracy performed very well, averaging 4.44 yards after contact per attempt paired with 6.3 yards per attempt for 773 yards. Tracy has very little tread on his tires despite being an older prospect.
Along with being a tough runner, Tracy maintained his receiving acumen. He is above average at running routes out of the backfield, paired with good hands. His athletic profile is also above average with more agility than speed, but still enough to be considered fast. However, his pass blocking is lacking.
Tracy seems to fit the Giants well. He ran about 50-50 of his snaps in college in a zone and gap scheme, respectively. The Giants run a few different looks but lean largely on zone schemes to try and open holes. Singletary, despite being undersized is more of a between-the-tackles rusher than a speedy outside back or explosive pass catcher. Tracy slots well in tandem with him as an explosive back who is more technically skilled at pass-catching. In terms of opportunity, there is very little in front of him besides Singletary. Tracy should get a chance to prove himself right away and has shown that he is worth giving chances to early in camp.
This is where the trouble is for Tracy. The Giants have a pitiful O-Line, ranking 30th in run-blocking grade last year. They paired this ranking with an even worse 32nd rank in pass blocking. Tracy will have to overcome subpar blocking to have success. However, his yards after contact in college prove he should be capable of doing so. Hopefully, the Giants’ O-Line additions will help them improve.
After drafting pass catcher Malik Nabers in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, defenses will theoretically be forced to respect the pass a little bit more. The Giants targeted their top-2 running backs 81 times last year. And under quarterback Daniel Jones, Saquon was targeted 76 times in 2023. This is a very solid number and provides hope for a floor if Tracy can indeed take over pass-catching duties.
Tracy is a very interesting and compelling player to keep an eye on. While the Giants are not good, there is a clear path for him to break in. Taken in the fifth-round of the NFL draft, he has a lot to prove. However, all the building blocks are there for him to show out in the NFL as one of the better rookies in 2024.
Luke McCaffrey is an interesting player in terms of the lack of hype surrounding him. When the brother of the best running back in the NFL (and perhaps all-time) gets day two draft capital I expect the hype to be unbearable. Instead, McCaffrey has ended up an afterthought in a strong receiver class for early drafters and media circles. As one of my favorite values right now, you don’t have to squint hard to see why McCaffrey could be a rookie star in the NFL for the 2024 season.
McCaffrey is an average-sized receiver, who like the aforementioned Tracy, is very green to his position. McCaffrey started as a quarterback for his first three years of college before transitioning to wide receiver in his last two. He is an above-average athlete who is quicker than fast, but has adequate traits to continue to grow.
For someone so new to the position, he understands how to leverage his size and has some of the better hands in this class. His route running is limited but what routes he does run, he runs well. PFF noted he was better against zone coverage than in man, but by the eye test, he handles man coverage fine though seems to struggle to separate from press coverage. On the whole, he is a talented project with the upside to be a WR2 for an NFL team.
McCaffrey finds himself in a prime spot to break out in the NFL in 2024 as one of our surprise rookies. The Washington Commanders need a replacement for Curtis Samuel, who departed in free agency along with his 91 targets. Unfortunately for them, Jahan Dotson has disappointed thus far and is not a good replacement for the shifty Samuel. Dotson only has one broken tackle across two seasons and offers little after the catch. Terry McLaurin is entering his age-29 season without ever having a true breakout campaign. McLaurin is who he is: a deep threat who is above average as an overall talent but not a takeover player. So how will they replace Samuel? Enter LMC.
McCaffrey profiles as a big slot, and despite not being the best player after the catch he has the traits to operate in space and force would-be tacklers to miss. Luke is versatile like Samuel, operating out of the backfield on occasion. He should slot in right away in that role as there are no other threats on the team to take it, besides perhaps Austin Ekeler.
On top of fitting into the Samuel role, this team simply will not have a true WR1. That should open up targets for LMC as the Commanders are likely to spread the ball around. McLaurin will get his usual amount of looks, but outside of that, there is a wide-open hole for someone to step up. There are a few fresh faces in Ekeler, Zach Ertz, and Ben Sinnott, but LMC has a chance to step into a WR2 role for this team and be a go-to screen and short-area player.
The biggest boost to the Commanders is going from Sam Howell (Sorry Howell truthers) to Jayden Daniels. The rookie-to-rookie connection is always fun for establishing chemistry early in camp. Daniels and LMC have already begun practicing together airing it out and looking good. Rookie QB and WR duos have a good head start establishing chemistry in a way that can help them pop. We saw C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell pop, Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins, Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton. To a lesser extent, we saw Daniel Jones to Darius Slayton and even Dwayne Haskins to Terry Mclaurin for half a year of goodness. It’s not always perfect, (see Kyler Murray and Andy Isabella, Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo, etc.) but it’s a good start.
Daniels is also a good quarterback. A review of his passing chart shows that Daniels likes to target the middle of the field and short or out wide and deep. LMC should operate largely over the middle. Daniels was very efficient when targeting that area of the field. McLaurin will likely take those outside looks, but LMC should fit Daniels’ passing preferences well as he transitions to the NFL.
McCaffery is a talented receiver who fits well into the role that was left open by the departure of Samuel. Currently overlooked due to other talented players in this class, LMC profiles as a higher volume, high-efficiency player in an improved Washington offense. Between talent, opportunity, and the benefit of a rookie to rookie connection LMC finds himself in a good position to succeed. Because of this lucrative combination, LMC has the potential to really surprise fans among the NFL rookies in 2024.
Jermaine Burton is an excellent example of how a player needs more than just talent to succeed. Burton is athletic, skilled in his route tree, and seems to understand the receiver position extremely well. However, a lack of effort and mental focus have held Burton back in college. He finds himself on the Cincinnati Bengals after being drafted in the third round. Burton is a big boom-or-bust prospect. However, with his talent and baseline opportunity, he is set up well to succeed in 2024.
Burton was not very productive in college, never soaking up volume. He was also a non-factor after the catch. What he did do was operate as a very good deep threat in the latter years at Alabama. He understands route-running nuance and has good hands to pair with the explosive speed. His issue was always consistency and attitude. If Burton had simply been a max effort player, there is a chance he could have been a first or second-round selection. This does not excuse all of his lack of production though, as he also struggled against man coverage. However, Burton should outperform his college stats in the NFL and is ultimately an intriguing prospect.
Assuming Tee Higgins is on the Bengals and does not hold out, there is still a good opportunity here. If Tee Higgins is not with the Bengals there is a great opportunity. Outside of target distribution, the reason why Higgins makes a difference is that Burton is not a slot receiver. Burton lined up outside over 80 percent of the time in college and his skill set fits much better outside than it does over the middle or in the slot. There is a non-zero chance the Bengals move Ja’Marr Chase into the slot to occupy a big slot, in a Ceedee Lamb-like role. I think this is likely how the Bengals replace Tyler Boyd’s position.
As for opportunity, this is where things become interesting. With the lack of tight end usage in this offense, it might not matter where Burton plays, as he should slot in as the third target in this offense. If Higgins is gone or sits out for any period of time, Burton should easily step into the WR2 role. I would anticipate 80-90 targets for Burton. Those targets should theoretically be high value, as Burton has always pushed a high aDot on his earned targets in college.
We all know that Joe Burrow is good. Assuming he is healthy, that sets Burton up to see high value, high-end targets. The Bengals will streamline targets to players who will take pressure off Burton in Chase and Higgins. Last year, we saw Chase get 145 targets, Boyd 98 and Higgins 76. Of course there is the caveat that Burrow and Higgins were hurt for fair stretches of time. However, in 2022 Chase had 134 targets, Higgins 109 and Boyd 82. Those top-2 receivers for the team, health permitting, are going to soak up most of the opportunities. Boyd managed to stay relevant despite not seeing high value targets frequently. Burton should be in line to see at least 70 targets against opposing CB3’s. The supporting cast is helpful and hurtful here, but ultimately I think it will help a more inconsistent and raw player in Burton be pushed into being the best he can be.
A small side note also is that with Joe Mixon gone, this team is likely to move towards a more high volume aerial attack. Mixon soaked up the fourth-most targets in back-to-back years and took on a lot of rushing volume. I like Zach Moss, and I like Chase Brown, but they are not the backs that Mixon was. This could push Burton up to see more volume than expected.
Burton is a longshot to be a WR2 this year, but should fall into boom or bust WR4 territory on a high volume passing team. Given how far he is falling in fantasy football drafts, expectations are not matching the talent and situation. As a result, Burton should surprise many in the NFL as one of the better rookies in 2024.
Cedric Gray is a rangy linebacker who fell a into the fourth round on draft day. In what many considered a weak linebacker class, Gray is a a player who could emerge as a top contributor right away. He possesses good athleticism, production, and the Tennessee Titans have a gaping hole at inside linebacker. It is not often a fourth round linebacker can step into a big role right away, but Gray finds himself in a spot to be one of the best rookie surprises in the NFL in 2024.
Gray tested faster than his play speed, clocking a 4.64 40-yard dash time. His agility is poor, but this shows up on tape. Gray is a rangy coverage linebacker who is a little bit undersized, yet adequate at pass rushing. He struggles against the run given his size and form, but NFL strength training could help him fill out a little bit. Gray’s tackle form runs a little bit high, but gets to the spot well. He also sticks to his man and zone very well in coverage. Quicker players can lose him in man coverage at times, however. Gray is not a superstar but a solid role player who has upside for a little more.
Gray profiles best as a rotational inside linebacker, likely as a weak inside linebacker. The Titans have a need for one of those after losing Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency to the Houston Texans. They signed Kenneth Murray as a replacement, but after four years of mediocre play, Murray does not seem like the answer. Jack Gibbens was okay last year but also is probably just a role player. This opens the door for a three-headed group to try and replace Al-Shaair. Al-Shaair did not grade that well via PFF, but he managed to accumulate 157 total tackles including 108 solo tackles. This type of player is exactly who Gray is: average all-around but a tackling machine. He should fit in well and is already impressing in camp with talk of him wearing the green dot.
As stated above, the Titans really lack linebackers, but generally have promising pieces on defense. The Titans were average in every facet of defense besides in the red zone, where they graded well. Jeffery Simmons was below his usual standards before suffering a season ending injury. Harold Landry III was also below his usual standards, though he racked up a fair number of sacks. This team reeks of mediocrity which should be good news for Gray’s production. There should be plenty of chances over the middle, both in coverage and rushers bursting through the average D-Line. Without Henry to slow the game down and run out the clock their should be more plays on defense as well.
Gray is in a prime position to be one of the more productive linebackers in the NFL in 2024, never mind amongst the rookies in this class. He might not end up being more than an average player, but his production and usage will help him break out. For those in IDP leagues, Gray is a must-target, as the price will go up.
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