Generational Isn’t Annual: The Problem with NFL Draft Hyperbole

Every NFL draft season, the same words get thrown around.

“Generational.”

“Special.”

“Elite.”

“Can’t miss.”

The facts? Generational isn’t annual. It’s rare. Special prospects aren’t a given, they’re uncommon.

Generational Isn’t Annual: The Problem with NFL Draft Hyperbole

By definition, a generational prospect isn’t someone who comes along every April. A special prospect is someone who distinguishes themselves from others at the position. Yet somehow fans convince themselves every year about a “generational” prospect, a “special” prospect, and that thirty-two prospects deserve first round grades.

Somewhere along the way scouting vocabulary became hyperbole and inflated. The truth is, exceptional isn’t the same as generational. Great isn’t the same as special. And being a first round draft pick doesn’t guarantee you anything. 

When every top prospect receives a hyperbolic label, those labels stop carrying meaning. The language of scouting should be as disciplined as the scouting itself.

That’s why every descriptor in my evaluations have a defined standard. Each word carries weight. Every label has a historical benchmark. A player doesn’t earn “Generational” because they’re the best prospect that year, or of the last five years, or even the last twenty years. They earn it only if their combination of talents are truly generational in nature.

That’s a much higher standard and that’s exactly the point.

Every NFL Draft Prospect Is Already Exceptional

Let’s start with something that often gets overlooked.

Every player we’re discussing as an NFL draft prospect is already one of the best football players in the world. A career backup in the NFL was likely one of, if not the star of their college football team. Every draft’s annual “Mr. Irrelevant” (the final draft pick of the draft class) has accomplished something that millions of athletes never will. Even undrafted free agents are remarkable football players. This is an incredibly important distinction that I don’t want lost in this.

Good Isn’t the Same as Special

A prospect can be a great football player without being a special prospect just like a quarterback can have outstanding arm talent while struggling as a mental processor. Being better than the players around you doesn’t automatically make you “special.” It simply means you’re better than the players around you. Likewise, having one generational or special trait doesn’t automatically make someone a generational or special prospect. The NFL draft is about evaluating complete players, seeing the full picture, and projecting growth.

My Philosophy

I want the words in my scouting reports to have weight. When I describe a prospect as “Good,” I want you to know exactly what that means. When I call someone “Special,” I want you to understand how difficult that label is to earn. And if I ever describe a player as “Generational”, I want it to stop you in your tracks. Those words should communicate historical significance not draft-season excitement.

Creating the Standard

To create consistency, every prospect goes through a systematic and standardized evaluation process. This process focuses on both quantitative and qualitative data-driven analytics as well as context driven film study. Each phase of the process forms its own output, but when read together they provide both a numerical grade and descriptors in my grading system providing a defined meaning.

For example, loosely, a generational prospect in my model is described as:

An extremely rare, immediate game changer who in theory, comes around once-in-a-decade or longer. These prospects are transcendent franchise centerpieces with a nearly unprecedented combination of size, traits, and skills with a nearly certain path to All-Pro caliber seasons and the potential to redefine the position.

A special prospect is defined as:

An uncommon and immediate difference maker. These prospects are franchise cornerstones with multiple elite traits and an exceptional overall profile that clearly distinguishes themselves from nearly every other prospect at their position. Perennial Pro-Bowlers with All-Pro potential. 

Those labels are intentionally difficult to earn. If there is a “generational quarterback” in every draft class, then none of them are truly generational. If every first-round receiver is “special”, then the word no longer separates anyone.

Historical Benchmarks

When I evaluate prospects, I don’t compare them only to the players in their draft class.

I compare them to the all-time NFL player pool. When evaluating quarterbacks, special arm talent is not graded by having the best arm talent of the class. It’s earned by having special arm talent relative to quarterbacks from the past and present. For example, loosely, special arm talent puts a prospect in the top ~10% of NFL quarterbacks that are, or ever were. That creates a much higher and much more consistent standard.

To help understand these historical benchmarks I have created a position-by-position last occurrence for of my last generational and special prospect. It’s important to stress that this is my last generational and special prospect — not consensus.

Quarterback

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2012 | Andrew Luck
• Current Special Benchmark | 2024 | Caleb Williams and Drake Maye

Running Back

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2018 | Saquon Barkley
• Current Special Benchmark | 2026 | Jeremiyah Love

Wide Receiver

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2007 | Calvin Johnson
• Current Special Benchmark | 2021 | Ja’Marr Chase

Tight End

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2006 | Vernon Davis
• Current Special Benchmark | 2024 | Brock Bowers

Offensive Tackle

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2021 | Penei Sewell
• Current Special Benchmark | 2024 | Joe Alt

Interior Offensive Line

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2018 | Quinten Nelson
• Current Special Benchmark | 2025 | Tyler Booker

Edge Rusher

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2017 | Myles Garrett
• Current Special Benchmark | 2023 | Will Anderson

Interior Defensive Line

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2010 | Ndamukong Suh
• Current Special Benchmark | 2023 | Jalen Carter

Off-Ball Linebacker

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2012 | Luke Kuechly
• Current Special Benchmark | 2026 | Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese

Cornerback

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2011 | Patrick Peterson
• Current Special Benchmark | 2022 | Derek Stingley Jr.

Safety

• Current Generational Benchmark | 2022 | Kyle Hamilton
• Current Special Benchmark | 2026 | Caleb Downs

Why This Matters

One of the biggest problems in modern NFL draft discourse is descriptor inflation and hyperbole. As the hype builds throughout the season, words become less precise. An excellent prospect becomes “Generational”, really good players become “Special”, and good players become first round talents. Eventually, the language loses its purpose.

Unfortunately, inflated evaluations and speaking in hyperbole don’t just affect scouting reports. They create expectations. Fans begin expecting every “Generational” quarterback to become the next Patrick Mahomes. Organizations expect every “Special” receiver to become the next Ja’Marr Chase. Players are judged against labels they never created and standards they never asked to meet.

A player can have an outstanding NFL career and still be viewed as a disappointment simply because the expectations placed upon him were unrealistic from the beginning. That’s unfair to the player, it’s unhelpful for the fan, and it isn’t honest scouting.

Scouting isn’t about finding thirty-two first-round grades because there happen to be thirty-two first-round picks. There are always 32 first-round picks. There are not always 32 first-round talents.

Some draft classes may produce forty players worthy of first-round consideration. Others may produce only twenty. The board isn’t a collection of empty spaces waiting to be filled. It’s a reflection of the players available. Our responsibility as evaluators isn’t to force prospects into predetermined tiers. It’s to evaluate them honestly, to describe who they are today, to project who they can become come April, and to measure them against the history of the position — not the convenience of the draft order or their peers in their class.

That’s why my evaluations are built upon historical benchmarks, clearly defined standards, a vetted scoring system, and language that carries weight. Because words matter. Generational isn’t annual. And that’s exactly why it matters when someone truly is.