These Conference USA Football Teams Got Lucky in 2025 – Who Will Crash in 2026?

What metric determines which teams are the luckiest and unluckiest teams in college football? The Pythagorean win total is a formula that helps determine how many wins or losses a team should have at the conclusion of their season by using the formula below. That is, points scored over points scored plus points allowed. In this article, we’ll be focusing on the luckiest and unluckiest football teams in Conference USA. You can also view the luckiest and unluckiest teams from the American Conference, the PAC-12, Mountain West, and the MAC.

What Metric Determines the Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams in College Football?

The Pythagorean win total is a formula that helps determine how many wins or losses a team should have at the conclusion of their season by using the formula below.  Points scored over points scored plus points allowed.

Expected Win Percentage = Points For (2.37)
                    ————————
          Points For (2.37) + Points Against (2.37)

The coefficient changes depending on the sport, but 2.37 seems to be regarded as the correct coefficient to use with college and pro football.  Other sports, such as soccer and baseball, use a standard 2 (squared) coefficient.

Using this formula, it is easier to see how many more wins or losses a team should have compared to how many wins or losses the team actually amassed at the end of the season. This can sometimes be a helpful factor in seeing how teams may perform leading into the following season.  Teams that got lucky and overperformed tend to regress the following season and drop more toward the mean and teams that underperformed tend to experience positive regression that results in more success. 

However, with today’s shifting landscape in the world of college football, especially with NIL, the transfer portal, and coaching/staff overhauls, these numbers aren’t always an accurate prediction of how teams will perform in the following season.  Knowing this isn’t the end all, be all stat, it is interesting food for thought.

Here are a few teams in Conference USA that had fortunate and underwhelming seasons, according to Pythagorean win total. Some C-USA teams were excluded, as they generally only had a +/- of half of an expected win or loss.

Teams that Overperformed (Good Luck)

Kennesaw State Owls

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
374	357	52%	14	10	4	7.3	6.6	-2.61

Kennesaw State is coming off a surprising season, posting a highly respectable 10-4 record in 2025 and winning the conference championship. This is quite the turnaround, considering they were coming off of a 2-10 campaign in 2024, their first season of FBS football. However, their Pythagorean win total tells a much different story in the win-loss column.

Kennesaw State played in seven one-possession games last year, going 5-2. Their two blowout losses were to eventual-national champion, Indiana, by 47 points in the second game of the season. Meanwhile, their 35-point bowl loss was to the MAC champions, Western Michigan.

The Owls’ projected Pythagorean record was around 7-6 in 2025. And, Kennesaw State may not slide too far away from that number in 2026. It is going to be hard to replicate 10 wins again, especially with an offense that loses all a lot of players from last year’s team. Expecting negative regression from a double-digit winning season isn’t the kiss of death, especially in the CUSA Conference. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see where Kennesaw St. lands in 2026.

Missouri State Bears

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
333	374	43%	13	7	6	5.6	7.3	-1.38

Missouri State surprised in Conference USA last season, putting together a 7-6 football record. They also secured a bowl appearance in their first season at the FBS level. Like Kennesaw State, the Bears also played in seven one-possession games, also going 5-2. These included a one-point win at Marshall, a two-point win at Middle Tennessee, an overtime win at New Mexico State, and a four-point win at Liberty. Most of their close games and wins came on the road, a feat that is hard to accomplish on a season-by-season basis. 

The Bears are likely to see less wins in the win-loss column next season, though. Missouri State lost their quarterback, running back, and over 1500 yards from the receiving room. The defense is also in tough shape heading into 2026, only bringing back three starters and losing five of their top six tacklers. While a majority of their point differential came from a 60-point loss at USC last season, it still seems like there is inevitable negative regression coming for the Bears in 2026.   

Delaware Blue Hens

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
377	403	46%	13	7	6	5.9	7.0	-1.38

Delaware also had positive luck in 2025, going 7-6 with a bowl win. All things considered, it was a very successful season for the Blue Hens. Delaware played in six close games last season, going 3-3 (excluding the bowl). Interestingly enough, each of these six games were within three points. And, there is a lot to be said about the result of these six games. Hypothetically going 5-1 or 1-5 in those coin flip games dramatically changes the outcome of their season last year. Going 5-1 is enough to probably put them in the conference title game in year one. However, going 1-5 would have many fans questioning why Delaware even made the jump to the FBS level at all. 

Even though some regression is expected based on the Pythagorean win total, Delaware is in a good spot heading into 2026 and should remain a contender in the conference. They bring back seven starters of offense, including their starting quarterback, running back, and receivers. They also bring back five defensive starters and another five contributors from last season’s team.

Delaware did get lucky last season. However, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility to see them as a 2026 contender with bowl game representation.  

Teams that Underperformed (Bad Luck)

Liberty Flames

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
307	318	48%	12	4	8	5.7	6.2	1.74

Liberty entered the 2025 season with expectations to be a conference title contender, especially with the addition of two FCS-to-FBS opponents on their schedule. However, bad luck ultimately derailed their conference title hopes at the end of the season. Sitting at 4-4 after their first eight games, Liberty went on to lose their last four games of the season in devastating fashion. Two losses were in overtime, one loss was in double overtime, and the other was a four-point loss in regulation to Missouri State. Switching that 0-4 stretch to 4-0 likely wasn’t enough to get them to heights they wanted to achieve last year. However, it would have at least led to a bowl appearance and ended the season without a sour taste. 

Liberty should come back from a disappointing season last year, considering their 4-8 2025 season was actually closer to a 6-6 record based on the Pythagorean win total.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
269	371	31%	12	3	9	3.8	8.1	.81

Middle Tennessee had a pretty forgettable 2025 season going 3-9 for the second consecutive year. However, they played in five closely contested games in the middle of their season, going 1-4. The lone win was a one-point victory at bottom-feeder Nevada, while the other four games were consecutive losses. Tough stretches like that during a season are often hard to overcome and how tough seasons can go off of the rails. 

Middle Tennessee is owed some positive regression heading into 2026, but may not find as much as they would like. The offense is missing several key pieces on offense. Meanwhile, the defense only brings back one of their top six tacklers from a team that already gave up almost 31 points per game. The 2026 schedule doesn’t do them any favors, as they draw the top five conference contenders while playing games at Marshall and Kansas.