These Mountain West Football Teams Got Lucky in 2025 – Who Will Crash in 2026?

What metric determines which teams are the luckiest and unluckiest teams in college football? The Pythagorean win total is a formula that helps determine how many wins or losses a team should have at the conclusion of their season by using the formula below. That is, points scored over points scored plus points allowed. In this article, we’ll be focusing on the luckiest and unluckiest teams in the Mountain West football conference and independent ranks. You can also view the luckiest and unluckiest teams from the American Conference, the PAC-12, and the MAC.

What Metric Determines the Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams in College Football?

The Pythagorean win total is a formula that helps determine how many wins or losses a team should have at the conclusion of their season by using the formula below.  Points scored over points scored plus points allowed.

Expected Win Percentage = Points For (2.37)
                    ————————

Points For (2.37) + Points Against (2.37)

The coefficient changes depending on the sport, but 2.37 seems to be regarded as the correct coefficient to use with college and pro football. Other sports, such as soccer and baseball, use a standard 2 (squared) coefficient.

Using this formula, it is easier to see how many more wins or losses a team should have compared to how many wins or losses the team actually amassed at the end of the season. This can sometimes be a helpful factor in seeing how teams may perform leading into the following season. Teams that got lucky and overperformed tend to regress the following season and drop more toward the mean. Meanwhile, teams that underperformed tend to experience positive regression that results in more success. 

However, with today’s shifting landscape in the world of college football, especially with NIL, the transfer portal, and coaching/staff overhauls, these numbers aren’t always an accurate prediction of how teams will perform in the following season. Knowing this isn’t the end all, be all stat, it is interesting food for thought.

Here are a few football teams in the Mountain West Conference that had fortunate and underwhelming seasons, according to Pythagorean win total. Some MW teams were excluded, as they generally only had a +/- of half of an expected win or loss.

Teams that Overperformed (Good Luck)

UNLV Rebels

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
477	392	61.4%	14	10	4	8.5	5.4	-1.4

There were quite a few questions to be answered before UNLV’s 2025 season. However, the Rebels made it work to the tune of a 10-4 record, a MW championship game appearance, and a bowl game in Dan Mullen’s first year as UNLV’s head coach. However, they may have overperformed in year one under the new circumstances. 

Pythagorean win total suggests UNLV should have been around 8.5 – 5.5, instead of boasting a double-digit win season. UNLV played in a whopping seven one-possession games last season, going 5-2 (bowl game included). Here are the results of the one possession games.

• 38-31 home opening victory versus FCS Idaho State as a 31 point favorite
• 30-23 home win versus eventual 3-9 UCLA
• 41-38 come from behind win on the road at Miami OH, who had QB injuries in the game
• 51-48 win at home versus Air Force on a missed AF 40 yard field goal attempt at the buzzer
• 35-40 home loss versus New Mexico
• 29-26 point double overtime victory versus Utah State
• 10-17 neutral site loss versus Ohio in the Frisco Bowl

UNLV also trailed at some point in every close win listed above. Getting lucky doesn’t begin to describe their season last year, especially since the Mountain West’s “computer metrics” gave them a shot in the championship game appearance over San Diego State and New Mexico, who were tied atop of the standings at 6-2. Reverse the outcome of a few one-possession games, and UNLV is likely still bowl eligible, but probably only with around a 6-6 record. 

The trajectory this season seems murky. Mullen seems to be a decent fit at UNLV, but there was a lot of good luck and positive variance throughout last season. The Rebels are already due for negative regression this season based on last year’s metrics. However, this doesn’t include a new quarterback in Jackson Arnold, who’s stepping in after a few failed ventures with other teams. The program also only has three starters from a pretty underwhelming defense returning as well. The 2026 schedule provides a bit of breathing room, but overall it seems like UNLV’s luck is pointing down heading into this season. 

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
377	313	60.8%	13	9	4	7.9	5.0	-1.08

Like UNLV, Hawaii also had some good luck last season, overperforming by over a win and some change. However, they only played in four one-possession games last season, including a 21-point comeback win in the Hawaii Bowl versus Cal.

It was mostly a boom or bust season on a game-to-game basis for Hawaii last year. They had a three-point win at home versus the newly rebuilt Stanford in Week 0 last year, a two-point loss on the road against Fresno State, and a seven-point loss at SDST. Hawaii was fortunate, but also only went 1-2 in their one-possession games during the regular season and caught lightning in a bottle on Christmas Eve. So, why is the team still -1 in expected wins? 

The first reason is that it’s likely the bowl game against Cal played a large role in that luck. Secondly, the other games on the schedule were significant losses or significant wins. Some were 10-point wins, while others were 20-30 point losses. The final reason is quarterback health.

There isn’t a metric that really proves it, but Micah Alejado was in and out of the lineup in many games last season. When he played and was healthy, he was electric. When he played through injury or the backup had to step in during the game, Hawaii quite obviously didn’t play as well. Because of that, there were a lot of varying outcomes when this took place.  Alejado does return this season, but only six other starters return along with him. The defense has improved almost every season with Timmy Chang as head coach. Yet now, in a realigned Mountain West Conference, it might be difficult for Hawaii’s football team to replicate the success and somewhat good fortune from last season.

New Mexico Lobos (Honorable Mention)

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
364	290	63.1%	13	9	4	8.2	4.7	-.79

No one was ready for the season that was put on display from New Mexico last season. The Lobos were gutted heading into the 2025 season, as FCS Idaho head coach Jason Eck and his quarterback Jack Layne came in with little to no expectation. Even the little optimism that surrounded the team was hard to quantify, as the transition from FCS to FBS in any regard, is a crapshoot at best. 

The Lobos started the season at Michigan and lost in a respectable 34-17 game. However, not many were sure how to perceive it. Was New Mexico better than expected, or was Michigan worse than expected? There were still lots of questions after one game in 2025, and even more after a mere 10-point victory over Idaho State, who was coming off of a nailbiter the previous week against UNLV. New Mexico did play in six one-possession games last season, which helps explain the -.79 expected wins.  

• 3-point road loss at San Jose State
• 2-point win versus Nevada
• 5-point win at UNLV
• 3-point win versus Colorado State
• 6-point, double OT win versus San Diego State
• 3-point OT loss in the bowl versus Minnesota

4-1 in the regular season in one-possession games, 4-2 overall including the bowl loss. New Mexico does return six starters on each side of the ball coming into this season. And, the conference now softens up a little bit after losing San Diego State and Boise State to the PAC-12. However, it is hard to replicate a 4-1 record in one-possession games. 

New Mexico has an argument to be the favorite team to compete in the Mountain West heading into 2026. However, how much can they count on returning experience and continuity to outweigh the good fortune from last season?

Teams that Underperformed (Bad Luck)

UTEP Miners

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
280	365	34.7%	12	2	10	4.1	7.8	2.17

UTEP was only able to crawl away from the 2025 season with two total wins. The team wasn’t able to find its footing at all last season, especially considering the circus taking place at the quarterback position.

Malachi Nelson came in last season expecting to revitalize his career. Unfortunately, he only played in about half of the games and played pretty poorly. UTEP only managed victories over FCS UT Martin and bottom of the barrel Sam Houston State. They did play in three one-possession games, but ended up going 0-3. The close losses included a six-point loss versus ULM, a three-point loss versus Jacksonville State, and a three-point loss versus New Mexico State. That’s three losses by a combined 12 points, all at home. There were a few other respectable performances mixed in last season, but for the most part, nothing to write home about. UTEP also played pretty competitively at home last season, but just couldn’t come up with a win when it mattered. 

The 2026 season may have better luck in store for UTEP. However, they don’t bring much back besides a handful of contributors from a defense that gave up over 30 points per game last season. UTEP is pretty much starting completely over on the offensive side of the ball, bringing in a mixed bag of transfers, ranging all the way from P4 to the FCS level. At the very least, UTEP should expect to find some better luck next season, especially at home. That is, if the offense can get off of the ground running after a brutal opening stretch of at Oklahoma, at Michigan, versus Oregon State, and on the road at New Mexico.

Air Force Falcons

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
360	364	49.3%	12	4	8	5.9	6.0	1.92

The Air Force Falcons are coming off of a couple of disappointing seasons after posting back-to-back 10-win seasons (2021, 2022) and a 9-win season in 2023. And for the Falcons, last season can pretty much be summed up in a single four game stretch of three point contests. The team went 1-3 in those games, and is the basic definition of bad variance. 

Air Force should be able to claim the two expected wins they are owed from last season for the upcoming year. They also return their starting quarterback, running back (without much depth), and bring back eight defensive starters. The defense was the likely culprit for their close losses last season, as they went from allowing around 20 points per game in the previous five seasons to 30 points per game last year.

The triple-option can take time to get rolling depending on the year and the returning personnel. However, if Air Force can make it count in the early games, flipping the record from 4-8 to 8-4 seems very much within reach.

Northern Illinois Huskies (Honorable Mention)

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
205	292	30.1%	12	3	9	3.6	8.3	.62

Northern Illinois makes the list because they also went 1-3 in one-possession games last season. A two-point win versus Holy Cross to start the season can now be viewed as ominous foreshadowing for how the rest of the season would play out. The other three one-possession games were a very odd 6-3 loss at home against San Diego State, a six-point loss at Eastern Michigan, and closing the season out with a four-point loss on the road at Kent State. NIU was still able to grab three wins last season, but only over 2025 MAC basement dwellers Ball State, UMass, and the aforementioned Holy Cross. However, NIU may not see the positive turnaround they are looking for heading into 2026. 

Their head coach stepped down and defensive coordinator Rob Harley is now the HC, his first head coaching gig ever. The defense brings back zero starters from last season and only three players who played, period. Harley also will be the team’s DC, as he tries to repair a defense that gave up almost a touchdown more per game than the previous couple of seasons. Quarterback Jalon Macon returns as the starter, but he only attempted 21 total passes last season. Unfortunately, his accuracy wasn’t there and he was mostly used as a running option with over double the amount of rushing attempts compared to passing attempts. This doesn’t even include the fact that they are moving to the Mountain West, where travel and level of football competition will be new for everyone involved. 

NIU is going to be faced with a steep, uphill climb in 2026. They boot the likes of UMass, Kent State, Ball State off the schedule for teams like Air Force, Hawaii, and UNLV, adding up to five trips to the western side of the United States. The 2025 Pythagorean win total may suggest an uptick in fortune for the Huskies heading into 2026. However, the makeup of the team and the inexperience at both the player and coaching positions seem to suggest otherwise.