These PAC-12 & Independent Football Teams Got Lucky in 2025 – Who Will Crash in 2026?

What metric determines which teams are the luckiest and unluckiest teams in college football? The Pythagorean win total is a formula that helps determine how many wins or losses a team should have at the conclusion of their season by using the formula below. That is, points scored over points scored plus points allowed. In this article, we’ll be focusing on the luckiest and unluckiest teams in the PAC-12 football conference and independent ranks. You can also view the luckiest and unluckiest teams from the American Conference and MAC.

What Metric Determines the Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams in College Football?

Expected Win Percentage = Points For (2.37)
                    ————————
          Points For (2.37) + Points Against (2.37)

The coefficient changes depending on the sport, but 2.37 seems to be regarded as the correct coefficient to use with college and pro football. Other sports, such as soccer and baseball, use a standard squared coefficient.

Using this formula, it is easier to see how many more wins or losses a team should have compared to how many wins or losses the team actually amassed at the end of the season. This can sometimes be a helpful factor in seeing how teams may perform leading into the following season. Teams that got lucky and overperformed tend to regress the following season and drop more toward the mean. Meanwhile, teams that underperformed tend to experience positive regression that results in more success.

However, with today’s shifting landscape in the world of college football, especially with NIL, the transfer portal, and coaching/staff overhauls, these numbers aren’t always an accurate prediction of how teams will perform in the following season. Knowing this isn’t the end all, be all. Yet, it is interesting food for thought.

Here are a few teams in the PAC-12 and the independent ranks that had fortunate and underwhelming seasons, according to Pythagorean win total. Some teams were excluded, as they generally only had a +/- of one half of an expected win or loss.

Teams that Overperformed (Good Luck)

UConn Huskies

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
459	351	65.3%	13	9	4	8.4	4.5	-.50

UConn continued to build off of their successful 9-4 campaign in 2024 by posting the same record in 2025. Although playing as an independent allows them scheduling freedom, UConn hasn’t won 10 games in a season since 1998. They also posted back-to-back 9-win seasons for the first time in program history. The Huskies weren’t quite as good as their record shows, however.

The Pythagorean win total suggests they played around a half-game better than expected. UConn played in seven one-possession games in 2025, going 4-3. The team lost back-to-back overtime games at Syracuse and Delaware. They also lost on the road at Rice as a double-digit favorite in double overtime, later in the season. Even with losing all three coin-flip games in OT, the expected wins still sit at -.50. 

Why is that? The truth is, even in the one-possession games UConn won (excluding the garbage time touchdown allowed to Ball State with the game in hand), the Huskies were still incredibly fortunate in their four one-possession wins. 

A game-winning field goal in the dying seconds at Buffalo, a touchdown in the last two minutes versus Duke, and missed 36-yard field goal by FAU with four seconds left were three of their four one-possession wins. The -.50 expected wins, based on all of these results combined, still feels somewhat generous. Paired with the expected regression projected by the Pythagorean win total, UConn also lost every major contributor on offense and defense, as well as their coaching staff. Nine wins don’t pop up very often at UConn, and it seems like they could be waiting a while again.

New head coach Jason Candle comes in from Toledo to try steady uncertainty. However, his track record of underperforming is also well documented. 

Teams that Underperformed (Bad Luck)

Texas State Bobcats

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
474	377	63.2%	13	7	6	8.2	4.7	1.22

Texas State takes the cake as the most unfortunate team on this list, coming in at 1.22 expected wins below their final record. The Bobcats played in five one-possession games in 2025, but it was really the way that their schedule played out that hurt them the most. 

Texas State played in a one-possession game at UTSA, who were dealing with their own identity issues at the beginning of last season. After that, they went 0-3 in three consecutive weeks with a one-point loss at Arkansas State, an overtime loss against Troy, and a double-overtime loss at Marshall. After a taxing three weeks, James Madison rolled into town and crushed what was a likely worn out and deflated Texas State team. Following the JMU game, the Bobcats then went on the road and lost by three at Louisiana. The season clearly snowballed out of control at this point, resulting in a five-game losing streak in the middle of the season.

They did rebound by winning their next four games handily, and crushed Rice in their bowl game as well. Outscoring your opponents by almost 100 total points by season’s end and only going 7-6 is a tough pill to swallow. However, it was really the misfortune of bad luck and a difficult schedule. 

The 2026 season should see some positive regression, however. They program is set to return their starting quarterback, both 1000-yard receivers and seven defensive contributors. Texas State is a great candidate to see more favorable results in 2026. However, will they be able to find it after switching conferences from the Sun Belt to the PAC-12?

San Diego State Aztecs

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
343	200	78.2%	13	9	4	10.1	2.8	1.16

San Diego State is coming off of their best season since 2021. Yet, they still came up a win short of expectation, even during a 9-4 season. The Aztecs only played in two one-possession games last season. The first was a very odd 6-3 final at Northern Illinois, with the other being a six-point loss in double overtime for a chance to go to the Mount West championship. Every other game on the schedule was either a double-digit win or blowout loss (for the most part). 

San Diego State should see a bounce back this season, as they bring back nearly every significant starter from last year’s team. However, one thing standing in their path in 2026 is a much more daunting schedule. 

In 2026, they have road games at UCLA and Boise State and home games versus James Madison, Texas State, and Washington State. They also face Fresno State twice due to the new PAC-12 “flex scheduling”, in the final week of the season.

San Diego State has a great chance to remain a contender in the new PAC-12 this season. However, they may not see the positive regression that is due.

Utah State Aggies

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
402	373	54.5%	13	6	7	7.0	5.9	1.07

Utah State played in three one-possession games last season, with a record of 1-2. One was a five-point win versus San Jose State with the others as brutal losses. The rest of their games were a mixed bag of blowout wins and losses. 

Coach Mendenhall returns to his second season, doing a respectable job in year one of bringing Utah State back to the level of competitive football. Even though the Aggies could see some positive variance heading into the 2026 season, it is hard to think it is a guarantee. While they return 11 total starters from last season’s team, they lose their top two rushers from last season, the starting quarterback, and top two wideouts.  The defense looks like they should make some progress in the right direction though, bringing back six defensive starters and around half of their top tacklers. If Utah State can find its footing on offense after out of conference trips to Washington and Utah, they may find some better luck as well.

Oregon State Beavers

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
218	353	24.1%	12	2	10	2.9	9.0	.90

Last season was an especially tough year for Oregon State, as they were only able to muster up two total wins. The Pythagorean win total says they probably should have had an additional win in the record book. However, it really wouldn’t have made much difference on the season as a whole. 

Oregon State played in four one-possession games last season, going 1-3. This included an embarrassing loss to Sam Houston where the Beavers were 20-point favorites.

Although Oregon State does bring back quite a few starters, the coaching staff was completely overhauled in the offseason. Yet, one bit of positive news is that this year’s schedule does get more manageable for the Beavers. 

Last year, Oregon State had to play California, Fresno State, Texas Tech, Oregon, Houston, and Wake Forest, due to the lack of conference partners in the PAC. This year eases up quite a bit, with only Houston, Texas Tech, Montana, and UTEP on their out of conference schedule. Yet, Oregon State may have to suffer through another tough season and find their new identity before finding some good luck.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Honorable Mention)

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
504	211	88.7%	12	10	2	10.6	1.3	.64

Notre Dame doesn’t really need to be included on the list. However, exploring the duality of their first two results of the season is interesting. Both games included one-possession losses to ranked teams, with the results ultimately determining the fate of Notre Dame’s season. 

Starting their freshman quarterback for the first game of the season, ND suffered a three-point road loss to Miami, who wound up in the National Title game. They followed that contest with a one-point loss at home, due to a botched snap, versus playoff participant Texas AM. These two games alone defined their season and debatably kept them out of the College Football Playoff.

Yet, aside from the 0-2 start to their season, Notre Dame dominated the rest of their schedule. The only game that was remotely close was a double-digit victory over a ranked USC team. The rest of the results were blowout wins. 

If Notre Dame could have even split the first two games of the season, they would have been a lock for the CFP. Instead, they ended up with a 10-2 record, lost a playoff spot to Alabama, and declined a bowl invite. 

Expect ND to find that extra win this season, as they play a much easier schedule on paper as of right now. They also return the Heisman favorite at quarterback, and bring back most of their defense that only allowed a shade north of 16 points per game last season.