These American Conference Teams Got Lucky in 2025 – Who Will Crash in 2026?

What metric determines which teams are the luckiest in college football? The Pythagorean win total is a formula that helps determine how many wins or losses a team should have had at the conclusion of their season by using the formula below. That is, points scored over points scored plus points allowed.

What Metric Determines the Luckiest Teams in College Football?

Expected Win Percentage = Points For (2.37)
                    ————————
          Points For (2.37) + Points Against (2.37)

The coefficient changes depending on the sport, but 2.37 seems to be regarded as the correct coefficient to use with college and pro football. Other sports, such as soccer and baseball, use a standard squared coefficient.

Using this formula, it is easier to see how many more wins or losses a team should have compared to how many wins or losses the team actually amassed at the end of the season. This can sometimes be a helpful factor in seeing how teams may perform leading into the following season. Teams that got lucky and overperformed tend to regress the following season and drop more toward the mean. Meanwhile, teams that underperformed tend to experience positive regression that results in more success.

However, with today’s shifting landscape in the world of college football, especially with NIL, the transfer portal, and coaching/staff overhauls, these numbers aren’t always an accurate prediction of how teams will perform in the following season. Knowing this isn’t the end all, be all. Yet, it is interesting food for thought.

Here are a few teams in the American Conference that had fortunate and underwhelming seasons, according to Pythagorean win total.  Some teams were excluded, as they generally only had a +/- of one half of an expected win or loss.

Teams That Overperformed in 2025 (Good Luck)

Tulane Green Wave

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
388	335	58.6%	14	11	3	8.2	5.79	-2.79

Tulane is coming off of the best season in their program’s history, finishing 11-3 with a conference championship and a CFP appearance. However, according to Pythagorean win total, Tulane should have ended up with around three more losses than what their final record shows. 

Tulane played in five games last season with a final score that ended within a possession or less. They ended up coming out 5-0 in said games.

With only six starters from last season’s team returning this year, a brand new coaching staff, and coming off of an already historic season for the program, Tulane seems like a prime candidate to take a step back this upcoming season. No one can expect Tulane to win 11 games again. However, will the team take an even steeper downward descent from the Pythagorean projected 8-6 record last season?

Navy Midshipmen

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
409	325	63.2%	13	11	2	8.22	4.77	-2.77

The Navy Midshipmen are also coming off of a rather historic season themselves, matching the most wins in program history with 11 last season. Their story is very similar to Tulane, too.

Navy played in a total of five games that were decided by one score or less, coming out on top in all five of them. Four of the aforementioned games were won by three points or less, including two one point victories. The service academies are often hit less with abrupt coaching changes and portal exits, usually retaining most of their players on a year to year basis. The same is true for this upcoming season, as Navy brings back nine total starters from last season’s team (four on offense, five on defense). However, they also lose their top passer, rusher, and captain in quarterback Blake Horvath. 

Seeing how Navy could have easily finished with three less wins, it would make sense to think Navy will also take a step back this season. However, with service academies, the system reigns supreme. The triple-option and the continuity of more returning starters than most other teams always make the military academies lively, but sometimes unpredictable. Look earlier in the season to possibly see some negative regression, as the option typically gets better with time, repetition, and live action game play; even though backup QB Braxton Woodson does have experience over the last three seasons and could help to steady the ship.

Rice Owls

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
248	428	21.5%	13	5	8	2.79	10.2	-2.20

Rice was somewhat of a surprise team last season in the American Conference, as they were overhauling their coaching staff, roster, and total offensive system in the season before. After a 4-8 record in 2024, improvement was expected to continue, but maybe not necessarily in the win-loss column. 

Rice went 5-8 last season and even ended up in a bowl game because of their APR (Academic Progress Rate), being the highest qualifier among the other 5-win teams. However, the Pythagorean win total suggests a much different season than what actually happened. 

Rice gave up 180 more points than they scored. However, they still won one more game than the previous season and made a bowl apperance. This included a two-point win in the season opener, a three-point win in double overtime, and a seven-point win later in the season. 

Rice was on the losing side of two one-possession games, but lost in blowouts in all of the rest in fantastic fashion;  52-3, 56-24, 38-14, and 61-13, just to name a few. Rice was an incredibly lucky team last season, and it really doesn’t take much imagination to see how they might regress this year. This is especially true when factoring that they only return five starters from a team that could have easily only won half their games in 2025.

North Texas Mean Green (Honorable Mention)

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
631	371	77.8%	14	12	2	10.9	3.09	-1.09

North Texas gets an honorable mention, as they came in with one less expected win from their historic 2025 campaign.

Only two of their wins were within one possession, and they had the highest plus points differential in the entire conference. When they won, they usually won in convincing fashion. In fact, had running back Caleb Hawkins not been injured in the conference championship game, they very well could have found themselves in the CFP instead of Tulane. 

Once again, it isn’t hard to see why North Texas will likely take some time to get back on their feet. They lost their head coach, FBS leading passer, and the aforementioned Hawkins. Coming off of an already historic season for North Texas football standards, they also bring back a total of zero starters from last year’s team. North Texas may have an especially hard time finding their footing to begin the 2026 season and onward. This might be a full rebuild for the program that was already expecting regression in 2026.

Teams That Underperformed (Bad Luck)

USF Bulls

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
526	304	78.5%	13	9	4	10.2	2.78	1.21

The USF Bulls are also coming off of a fantastic season last year, in what was one of the more fun conference races to watch. However, USF is on the other side of the Pythagorean spectrum. Where the previously-mentioned teams gained more wins than what was expected, South Florida is coming off of a season where they should have lost fewer games than they actually did. 

USF played in a just one single-possession game last season that resulted in a win on the road at Florida. The Bulls lost three games last season, one of those being a dismantling at future national championship runner up, Miami (FL).  The other two losses were a three-point loss at Memphis and a three-point loss at Navy.  USF blew a 31-17 lead in the fourth quarter at Memphis and came up just short of a 15-point comeback at Navy. Change those two games that were decided by a total of six points, and USF likely would have been in the CFP. 

As for all of the other wins on USF’s schedule, they were won handily with scores of 63-36, 55-23, 18-18, and 52-3. As the 2026 season continues to get closer, it doesn’t seem like USF will have the advantage of positive regression moving forward. Like North Texas, USF also saw their roster and coaching staff completely gutted, while returning only three starters heading into next season.

UTSA Roadrunners

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
462	379	62.1%	13	7	6	8.0	4.9	1.07

UTSA was a wild ride last season, starting 2-3 to begin the year, with wildly varying results to end the season. The Roadrunners were on the negative side of regression, accruing one more loss than projected by the Pythagorean win total. However, UTSA only played in three one-possession games last season. Those games included a one-point win at Colorado State, a six-point loss at Temple, and a three-point loss against Army. The losses against Temple and Army saw the Roadrunners blow double-digit leads. Meanwhile, the win at Colorado State was achieved with a missed two-point conversion by CSU in the dying seconds of the game. 

UTSA does seem to have some momentum that could back up their +1.07 expected wins last season into this season. They return nine total starters, six of those being on an offense. If UTSA can figure out their defense and defensive personnel moving into 2026, this is a team that should actually receive some positive regression in 2026.

Memphis Tigers (Honorable Mention)

Pts. For	Pts. All.	Win %	Games	W	L	Pyth. W	Pyth. L	+/-
422	301	69%	13	8	5	8.9	3.02	.97

Memphis gets an honorable mention on the positive side here, with a little less than one more expected win in the 2025. Some projected Memphis as a preseason conference favorite prior to the season. However, they ended up with a pretty middle of the road 8-5 record after a 5-0 start, including a one-point win on the road at Arkansas. Four of Memphis’s five losses last year were in games that ended within a possession or less. 

First on the list was an inexplicable seven-point loss to UAB on the road, although there were quarterback injury issues in that game. Then, the 8-1 Memphis team went on to lose their last three games by six, four, and 11 points, along with a blowout loss in their bowl game. Most of their wins were won handily, except the one, a three-point win mentioned above in the USF section. 

Memphis is another team that had some misfortune last season and may not see a bounce-back in 2026. Their head coach left for Arkansas and Memphis only has one starter from last season coming back for 2026. However, Memphis is a very well-funded team through their NIL collective with FedEx. And as we all know, if you have money in college football, you have a chance. 

Charles Huff comes in to lead the team this upcoming year; his third coaching stop in as many seasons (not in a negative way). It will be interesting to see how Memphis will start next season with essentially a brand new roster and a brand new coach, while also hoping for some better luck than last season’s somewhat snakebit team.